Predicting the match order at Backlash 2023

It’s one thing to predict the winners and losers at Backlash 2023, but how about taking a guess at the match order for the event?

WWE Backlash 2023 takes place tonight (Sat., May 6) from Coliseo de Puerto Rico in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main card begins at 8:00 pm ET on on pay-per-view (PPV), Peacock, and the WWE Network.

WWE has announced seven different segments for the main card of this event. Here is my subjective view of how important each of these seven segments rank, ordered from most important to least important.

1. Cody Rhodes vs. Brock Lesnar
2. Bad Bunny vs. Damian Priest
3. Zayn, Riddle, Owens vs. The Bloodline
4. Bianca Belair vs. IYO SKY
5. Theory vs. Lashley vs. Reed
6. Seth Rollins vs. Omos
7. Rhea Ripley vs. Zelina Vega

Main event

The main event match comes down to two choices: Cody Rhodes vs. Brock Lesnar, or Bad Bunny vs. Damian Priest.

When the rumor mill initially indicated that Bad Bunny was going to be in a tag team match on this card, it was easier to overlook him for the main event spot in favor of the more obvious match between Lesnar and Rhodes. But if there was any doubt about what the final match of Backlash should be, all you had to do was listen to the reception Bad Bunny received in San Juan last night on SmackDown. Rhodes and Lesnar might be bigger stars than Bunny to most wrestling fans, but Bad is clearly the main attraction for the fans in Puerto Rico tonight. He’s the guy who should be sending the fans home happy at this event.

I don’t really know if that reception will influence WWE’s match order tonight. If WWE plans to book Cody Rhodes to a clean win over Brock, then a very good argument can be made that it should be the main event. However, the fact that Bad Bunny is the biggest star in the building could help them get away with a screwy finish in the Lesnar match if it’s on the undercard.

If Bunny does indeed go on to compete in the main event, then he will join this list of wrestlers who have main evented a WWE PPV in a one-on-one match. It’s been a few years since I have updated that list, but I find it interesting that top star Becky Lynch is still on the outside looking in, while a non-wrestler like Bad Bunny at least has a real chance to enter the club.

This looks like something of a coin flip decision to me. A few days ago I would have chosen Cody and Brock for this spot. But after last night, I’m leaning more towards the outside celebrity landing in the main event of Backlash.

Opening match

Deciding on the opening match for this card is also not so easy. Sometimes Brock goes there if he isn’t in the main event. Otherwise the opener is typically a fast-paced tag match or something with good work rate that will go around 13 minutes and is not one of the very top attractions on the card.

Based on some of those criteria, I can safely rule out Ripley and Omos for the opening match, but the others are all fair game.

I’m going to make my decision based on a combo choice with Segment 2, which is often a spot for one of the least important matches of the night. That’s where Omos or Ripley will most likely go.

If I pick a men’s match as the opener, then I will choose Ripley in Segment 2. If I choose Belair for the opener, then I will put Omos in Segment 2. This is because WWE rarely books women’s matches in consecutive segments, and I think one of the women’s matches on this card will be placed in the first two segments.

I think it comes down to Theory & Ripley for the first two matches, or Belair & Omos. I’ll go with the first choice; it’s a good idea to get Rhea’s match out of the way early before she shows up to interfere in Bad Bunny’s match later.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: Theory vs. Lashley vs. Reed
Segment 2: Rhea Ripley vs. Zelina Vega
Segment 3:
Segment 4:
Segment 5:
Segment 6:
Segment 7: Bad Bunny vs. Damian Priest

Segment 3 and Segment 4

I won’t put Belair in Segment 3 because a women’s match is in Segment 2. I also can’t really see Brock going this early in the card if he isn’t in the opener. That leaves either The Bloodline or Omos. Might as well get Omos out of the way early and save The Bloodline for a triple main event scenario.

That makes Belair’s match a straightforward choice for Segment 4, with the most important matches of the night saved for the final portion of the card.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: Theory vs. Lashley vs. Reed
Segment 2: Rhea Ripley vs. Zelina Vega
Segment 3: Seth Rollins vs. Omos
Segment 4: Bianca Belair vs. IYO SKY
Segment 5:
Segment 6:
Segment 7: Bad Bunny vs. Damian Priest

Everything else

The only thing left to do is make a choice between The Bloodline and Brock Lesnar for Segment 5 and Segment 6. I’ll put Brock and Cody in Segment 6 because it’s the more important match of the two.

Finalized card

So here is my final prediction for the match order at Backlash, along with guesses on the bell-to-bell match times:

Segment 1: Theory vs. Lashley vs. Reed (12)
Segment 2: Rhea Ripley vs. Zelina Vega (8)
Segment 3: Seth Rollins vs. Omos (10)
Segment 4: Bianca Belair vs. IYO SKY (13)
Segment 5: Zayn, Riddle, Owens vs. The Bloodline (21)
Segment 6: Cody Rhodes vs. Brock Lesnar (12)
Segment 7: Bad Bunny vs. Damian Priest (17)

That’s my prediction for the match order at Backlash. This is a tough one to nail down, so let me know in the comments below how you see things playing out.