Predicting the match order at Extreme Rules 2022

It’s one thing to predict the winners and losers at Extreme Rules 2022, but how about taking a guess at the match order for the event?

Extreme Rules takes place tonight (Sat., Oct. 8) at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, starting at 8:00 pm ET, live on Peacock (in the U.S.) and WWE Network (everywhere else).

WWE has announced six different segments for the main card of this event. Here is my subjective view of how important each of these six segments rank, ordered from most important to least important.

1. Bianca Belair vs. Bayley
2. Liv Morgan vs. Ronda Rousey
3. Matt Riddle vs. Seth Rollins
4. Edge vs. Finn Balor
5. Drew McIntyre vs. Karrion Kross
6. Brawling Brutes vs. Imperium

Main event

This is a fascinating card to analyze because there is no clear cut main event match. Roman Reigns isn’t booked for the show, and the headlining spot is wide open between four potential matches. The matches with Drew McIntyre and Imperium are the only ones that are not plausible main event matches for Extreme Rules.

First up is Liv Morgan defending the SmackDown women’s championship against Ronda Rousey. Rousey is the big star and this is the titular gimmick match of the show, so it could very well be the main event.

The Raw women’s championship match between Bianca Belair and Bayley is right there with it. It’s a safer bet to deliver a great match, and WWE is promoting it as a historic match, the first ever one-on-one ladder match between two women on the main roster.

Rollins and Riddle in the Fight Pit also has a chance to close out the night. Daniel Cormier is involved, and I’m not sure yet if there’s any potential setup or breakdown of the Fight Pit structure that could make it an appropriate fit for the very end of the show.

Finally, Edge vs. Finn Balor is a longshot for the main event, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out. The finish would likely have to include a major angle for this to be the main event, such as the return of Bray Wyatt.

What I find even more interesting is that three out of these four matches include a wrestler who has never main evented a WWE pay-per-view in a one-on-one match. Whether it’s Liv Morgan, Bayley, or Matt Riddle, there is a very strong chance that there will be a new entry on the list of WWE’s main event stars.

I’m going with Bayley and Belair as my guess for the main event match. WWE says it’s a historic match, and there’s an outside shot that Sasha Banks and Naomi might return at the end. Even if they don’t return, a title change is very much on the table because Belair is facing an uphill battle against Damage CTRL. There’s also a chance that Morgan vs. Rousey is a dud, whereas that downside risk is not present with Belair and Bayley.

Opening match

The opening match of the night is usually one of the mid-level attractions with good work rate that doesn’t require a dedicated video package ahead of time to hype it up.

I think it’s always a great idea to open a PPV card with a wild or fast-paced tag team match, so Brawling Brutes vs. Imperium in a Good Old-Fashioned Donnybrook is hard to pass up for this spot.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: Brawling Brutes vs. Imperium
Segment 2:
Segment 3:
Segment 4:
Segment 5:
Segment 6: Bianca Belair vs. Bayley

Everything else

Edge loves working long matches, and an “I Quit” stipulation lends itself very well to a slower style of match. I want to make sure to follow that one up with Rousey’s Extreme Rules match, because I think it will have a more chaotic tempo that pairs well with Edge’s match.

WWE doesn’t often book two women’s matches in consecutive segments. I have Belair in Segment 6, so the latest I’m willing to place Rousey is Segment 4. That means Edge goes in Segment 3.

All I have left to do is decide on McIntyre and Rollins for Segments 2 and 5. That’s an easy choice. There’s a scenario where Seth is in the main event, after all, so I won’t hesitate to place him later in the card than Drew on my lineup.

Finalized card

So here is my final prediction for the match order at Extreme Rules, along with guesses on the bell-to-bell match times:

Segment 1: Brawling Brutes vs. Imperium (16 minutes)
Segment 2: Drew McIntyre vs. Karrion Kross (15)
Segment 3: Edge vs. Finn Balor (19)
Segment 4: Liv Morgan vs. Ronda Rousey (12)
Segment 5: Matt Riddle vs. Seth Rollins (17)
Segment 6: Bianca Belair vs. Bayley (18)

These times add up to 97 minutes, which WWE should be able to fit on a three hour card.

That’s my prediction for the match order at Extreme Rules. What’s yours?