Predicting the match order at Extreme Rules 2021

It’s one thing to predict the winners and losers at Extreme Rules, but how about taking a guess at the match order for the event?

Extreme Rules takes place tomorrow tonight (Sept. 26) from the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, with the main card beginning at 8 pm ET on Peacock.

WWE has announced six different segments for the main card of this event. Here is my subjective view of how important each of these six segments rank, ordered from most important to least important.

1. Roman Reigns vs. Finn Balor
2. Becky Lynch vs. Bianca Belair
3. Charlotte Flair vs. Alexa Bliss
4. Priest vs. Hardy vs. Sheamus
5. The Usos vs. Street Profits
6. Liv Morgan vs. Carmella

Main event

It seems obvious that the Universal championship match between Reigns and Balor is the main event of this card, especially after last night’s SmackDown commentary team repeatedly reminded the viewers that Balor’s demon form is undefeated on the main roster. More importantly, it’s the only match on the card that is not being contested under Standard Rules.

There might be a scenario where Lynch and Belair can get that main event spotlight, but there will probably have to be a terrible finish planned for Roman’s match for that to happen.

None of the remaining matches on this card have a chance to be the main event.

Opening matches

The opening match of the night is usually one of the mid-level attractions with good work rate that doesn’t require a dedicated video package ahead of time to hype it up.

Of the remaining matches, Morgan vs. Carmella is the least likely one to open the card. It’s clearly the least important match of the night, which is often reserved for Segment 2, so that’s where I’m placing it.

Given three out of the six matches on this card are women’s matches, and I just chose one of them for Segment 2, that means I will to have to break my rule about not placing women’s matches in consecutive segments. Either that, or I’ll have to add an extra segment onto the card.

This card does look short-handed with only two matches from Raw, so I will add a 7th segment to this lineup, and put one of the men’s matches in the opener. It will either be Priest or The Usos. A fast-paced tag match is a good fit for the opening spot. I expect The Usos and maybe even the Street Profits will interfere in the main event, so it’s probably best to get their match out of the way as early as possible.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: The Usos vs. Street Profits
Segment 2: Liv Morgan vs. Carmella
Segment 3:
Segment 4:
Segment 5:
Segment 6:
Segment 7: Roman Reigns vs. Finn Balor

Everything else

With a concise card like this, there is no need for a cool-down match before the main event. Therefore I’m going to end the night with the two most important matches, which means Belair and Lynch go right before Reigns.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: The Usos vs. Street Profits
Segment 2: Liv Morgan vs. Carmella
Segment 3:
Segment 4:
Segment 5:
Segment 6: Becky Lynch vs. Bianca Belair
Segment 7: Roman Reigns vs. Finn Balor

I added a 7th segment in order to alternate the men and women’s matches, so Flair and Bliss are now locked into Segment 4.

That leaves Segment 3 or Segment 5 for Priest’s championship defense. I’ll put Priest in the earlier segment and leave Segment 5 open for an unadvertised men’s match from Raw. How about AJ Styles vs. Matt Riddle? Sure, why not? This card could use the phenomenal upgrade.

Finalized card

So here is my final prediction for the match order at Extreme Rules, along with guesses on the bell-to-bell match times:

Segment 1: The Usos vs. Street Profits (14 minutes)
Segment 2: Liv Morgan vs. Carmella (6)
Segment 3: Priest vs. Hardy vs. Sheamus (14)
Segment 4: Charlotte Flair vs. Alexa Bliss (12)
Segment 5: AJ Styles vs. Riddle (13)
Segment 6: Becky Lynch vs. Bianca Belair (15)
Segment 7: Roman Reigns vs. Finn Balor (23)

That’s my prediction for the match order at Extreme Rules. What’s yours?