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How predictable was SummerSlam 2021?

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Seven different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on August 21 at SummerSlam 2021. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for SummerSlam also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

Bianca Belair’s match was omitted because WWE falsely advertised Sasha Banks as her opponent. The pre-show match between Big E and Baron Corbin is also not included, because it was not advertised at all.

The line for Edge’s match can be interpreted as follows: “6 out of 8 predictions for Edge’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 75.0%.”

Staff Predictions for SummerSlam 2021

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Marcus Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Marcus Polls Total
Omos & Styles vs. RK-Bro 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
Bliss vs. Eva Marie 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
Sheamus vs. Priest 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
Usos vs. Mysterios 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
McIntyre vs. Mahal 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 87.5
ASH vs. Ripley vs. Flair 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 37.5
Edge vs. Rollins 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 75.0
Lashley vs. Goldberg 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 87.5
Reigns vs. Cena 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
Total 88.9 77.8 88.9 100 88.9 88.9 88.9 77.8 87.5

These numbers add up to 63 correct predictions and 9 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for SummerSlam is 87.5%.

This increases the overall predictability rating for 2021 WWE PPVs from 65.9% up to 69.6% (293 correct vs. 128 incorrect predictions). For comparison’s sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2020 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, 63.7%, and 65.5%, respectively.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 88%: RK-Bro
  • 85%: Alexa Bliss
  • 85%: Damian Priest
  • 81%: The Usos
  • 78%: Drew McIntyre
  • 35%: Flair (54% A.S.H., 11% Ripley)
  • 44%: Edge
  • 78%: Bobby Lashley
  • 74%: Roman Reigns

SummerSlam joins WrestleMania Backlash as two of the most predictable WWE PPVs since the start of 2015.

The undercard was actually the most predictable portion of this event. The Cageside staff was 100% accurate on the first four matches of the night, and the community polls had 80%+ agreement on the correct winner of those matches. Not too many people were fooled into thinking Styles & Omos, Eva Marie, Sheamus, or The Mysterios would win their matches.

The upper card also had several very predictable matches. Once again, it was hard to see Jinder Mahal, Goldberg, or John Cena coming out on top.

As has been the case multiple times this year, Charlotte Flair’s match was very difficult to accurately predict. She wins and loses that Raw women’s championship so often that it almost feels like there’s no rhyme or reason to it.

The outcome of Edge vs. Seth Rollins had a little more mystery to it than most of the other matches at SummerSlam, particularly in the Cageside poll results.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a fantastic night with predicting the winners at SummerSlam. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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