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How predictable was Money in the Bank 2021?

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on July 18 at Money in the Bank 2021. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Money in the Bank also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for the Usos’ match can be interpreted as follows: “2 out of 7 predictions for the Usos’ match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 28.6%.”

Staff Predictions for Money in the Bank 2021

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
The Mysterios vs. The Usos 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 28.6
Women's ladder match 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Styles & Omos vs. Viking Raiders 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 71.4
Lashley vs. Kingston 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Ripley vs. Flair 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 42.9
Men's ladder match 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 28.6
Reigns vs. Edge 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Total 57.1 42.9 42.9 57.1 42.9 57.1 71.4 53.1

These numbers add up to 26 correct predictions and 23 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Money in the Bank is 53.1%.

This decreases the overall predictability rating for 2021 WWE PPVs from 68.0% down to 65.9% (230 correct vs. 119 incorrect predictions). For comparison’s sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2020 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, 63.7%, and 65.5%, respectively.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 67%: The Usos
  • 8%: Nikki A.S.H (53% Morgan, 26% Bliss, 5% Vega, 4% Naomi, 3% Asuka, 0% Tamina, 0% Natalya)
  • 83%: Omos & AJ Styles
  • 63%: Bobby Lashley
  • 38%: Charlotte Flair
  • 43%: Big E (18% Rollins, 16% Riddle, 12% McIntyre, 4% Owens, 3% Nakamura, 2% Ricochet, 2% Morrison
  • 89%: Roman Reigns

Roman Reigns winning is the most predictable thing in wrestling, even when he’s up against a Hall of Fame part-timer like Edge. Reigns has not lost a singles match since he returned to WWE roughly one year ago. It might just require a Money in the Bank cash-in from Big E to finally take the Universal championship away from the Tribal Chief.

Meanwhile, Charlotte Flair did it again! Her match results continue to fool a majority of the staff and community voters, this time even when she was the winner of her match.

Liv Morgan was the popular pick among community voters for winning the women’s ladder match. Not only did she lose the match, but she has disappeared from WWE television in the aftermath.

Most of the Cageside staff didn’t think the Usos would win the SmackDown tag team titles, but the community voters knew better than to doubt the Usos’ knack for winning championship gold shortly after a DUI.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a sub par night with predicting the winners at Money in the Bank. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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