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How predictable was Hell in a Cell 2021?

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WWE.com

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on June 20 at Hell in a Cell 2021. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Hell in a Cell also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The pre-show match between Mandy Rose and Natalya is not included in the results because it was not advertised far enough in advance of the event.

The line for Rhea Ripley’s match can be interpreted as follows: “3 out of 7 predictions for Ripley’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 42.9%.”

Staff Predictions for Hell in a Cell 2021

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Belair vs. Bayley 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Cesaro vs. Rollins 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 71.4
Bliss vs. Baszler 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Owens vs. Zayn 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 42.9
Ripley vs. Flair 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 42.9
Lashley vs. McIntyre 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Total 50.0 83.3 83.3 66.7 83.3 100.0 50.0 73.8

These numbers add up to 31 correct predictions and 11 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Hell in a Cell is 73.8%.

This increases the overall predictability rating for 2021 WWE PPVs from 67.1% up to 68.0% (204 correct vs. 96 incorrect predictions). For comparison’s sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2020 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, 63.7%, and 65.5%, respectively.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 84%: Bianca Belair
  • 39%: Seth Rollins
  • 86%: Alexa Bliss
  • 41%: Sami Zayn
  • 26%: Charlotte Flair
  • 88%: Bobby Lashley

Most community members weren’t buying the idea that Bayley, Shayna Baszler, or Drew McIntyre stood much of a chance against their respective opponents at Hell in a Cell.

Charlotte Flair’s booking has been tricky to figure out in 2021, where every pay-per-view match of hers has a predictability rating under 50%. I guess it’s tempting to assume that Charlotte Flair will always win, until she loses, but then sometimes wins by disqualification. Her match at Hell in a Cell gave us the kind of terrible DQ ending that is clearly there to resolve nothing and extend the feud for another month, rendering the match on this pay-per-view as an inconsequential waste of time.

The wins for Rollins and Zayn also tripped up many community voters. I get it. Sometimes you just have to vote for the babyface, right?

The staff of Cageside Seats had a pretty good night with predicting the winners at Hell in a Cell. How did you fare, Cagesiders?