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How predictable was Crown Jewel 2021?

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Seven different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on October 21 at Crown Jewel 2021. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Crown Jewel also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for RK-Bro’s match can be interpreted as follows: “6 out of 8 predictions for RK-Bro’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 75.0%.”

Staff Predictions for Crown Jewel 2021

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Marcus Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Marcus Polls Total
Hurt Business vs. Usos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
Edge vs. Rollins 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 62.5
Mansoor vs. Ali 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
RK-Bro vs. Omos & Styles 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 75.0
Doudrop vs. Vega 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 62.5
Goldberg vs. Lashley 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
Woods vs. Balor 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 50.0
Big E vs. McIntyre 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
Lynch vs. Belair vs. Banks 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 75.0
Reigns vs. Lesnar 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 87.5
Total 80.0 60.0 80.0 90.0 70.0 90.0 80.0 100 81.3

These numbers add up to 65 correct predictions and 15 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Crown Jewel is 81.3%.

This increases the overall predictability rating for 2021 WWE PPVs from 68.9% up to 70.7% (388 correct vs. 161 incorrect predictions). For comparison’s sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2020 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, 63.7%, and 65.5%, respectively.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 90%: The Usos
  • 80%: Edge
  • 88%: Mansoor
  • 73%: RK-Bro
  • 57%: Zelina Vega
  • 59%: Goldberg
  • 57%: Xavier Woods
  • 94%: Big E
  • 54%: Becky Lynch (36% Banks, 10% Belair)
  • 73%: Roman Reigns

The Cageside staff was 100% accurate in our predictions on four of the 10 matches, including Goldberg over Lashley, The Usos over Cedric Alexander & Shelton Benjamin, Mansoor over Mustafa Ali, and Big E over Drew McIntyre.

It doesn’t take a lot of brain power to guess Mansoor might win in Saudi Arabia. As predictable as his matches in that country have always been, the Cageside community voters were even more confident about the outcomes for the Usos and Big E. Sorry Drew McIntyre, but you simply never had a chance to regain that WWE championship.

As for Goldberg, his obsession with murdering Bobby Lashley didn’t cause us to blink. The Cageside community voters were more unsure about it than the staff, yet we were all in agreement that, yeah, Goldberg was probably going to murder a man in Saudi Arabia. What a strange guy.

Brock Lesnar was the clear underdog in his first WWE match in roughly 16 months. The Cageside staff and community know very well by now that Roman Reigns doesn’t lose on pay-per-view, whether he is facing a first time main event wrestler like Jey Uso, or one of the biggest stars in the business like John Cena or Brock Lesnar.

There was no match on the card that completely fooled us. The winners of the King of the Ring and Queen’s Crown tournament were the most difficult things to accurately predict, but we’re still talking about a success rate of 50% or higher for our guesses there.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a great night with predicting the winners at Crown Jewel. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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