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WWE isn’t even pretending that the SmackDown women have a chance

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Money in the Bank ladder match

Dana Brooke vs. Lacey Evans vs. Asuka vs. Nia Jax vs. Shayna Baszler vs. Carmella

The Money in the Bank ladder matches are significantly different this year. WWE needed to think outside the box to come up with a way to turn awkward empty arena wrestling into a must-watch attraction, and they’ve accomplished that goal with this creative idea.

Three women from Raw and three women from SmackDown will start at the bottom of WWE headquarters in Stamford, Connecticut, and make their way up to the roof. That’s where the briefcase will be waiting, and the first person who claims it will be the winner. If that’s not wild enough for you, then you should also know that the six women will be competing at the same time as the six men who will also be vying for their own briefcase.

Madness, chaos, and backfiring elevator shortcuts are all but guaranteed in this unprecedented match. On top of that, someone is probably getting thrown off the roof of the building.

The three representatives from Raw are Asuka, Nia Jax, and Shayna Baszler. These three women are all dominant ass kickers who can go toe-to-toe with any woman on the roster.

The three representatives from SmackDown are Dana Brooke, Carmella, and Lacey Evans. Evans is really the only one from that group has been treated as an important wrestler over the last year.

Given the lopsided nature of the participants from each brand, combined with the fact that WWE is promoting a segment on Raw where Becky Lynch will call out the winner of this ladder match, it’s clear that the SmackDown women are all extreme underdogs.

Let’s break it down with the results from my super-secret-but-mathemetically-accurate algorithm for determining each wrestler’s probability of winning this match. The computations for this algorithm are constantly calculated and maintained on a Windows 95 computer, in order to better match Vince McMahon’s level of out of touchness, thereby increasing the accuracy of the results.

40% - Nia Jax

Nia Jax has returned to WWE after missing roughly a year with double knee surgery. In kayfabe, that injury would seem to make her the least likely person to win this match, because it’s essentially a race to the top of a building. Nia Jax is about power, not speed.

But we’re not supposed to think about it that deeply. Jax is easily squashing highly skilled wrestlers like Kairi Sane, and she has a clear history with Becky Lynch that screams out they will be feuding for the Raw women’s title sooner rather than later. One obvious way to make it happen is by giving Jax the briefcase.

30% - Shayna Baszler

Shayna Baszler has been strongly booked on the main roster thus far, with the glaring exception of her clean loss to Becky Lynch at WrestleMania 36. This Money in the Bank ladder match could be a make-or-break night for Basler. If she wins, then a championship run is practically guaranteed. If she loses, then it would seem that Vince McMahon has moved on from the idea of her as a fixture in Raw’s championship scene.

14% - Asuka

Asuka already had a substantial championship feud with Becky Lynch earlier this year, so that hurts her chances of winning this one. But Asuka has pretty much been the MVP of the empty arena Raw era, so maybe she’ll be rewarded here for her efforts. Becky Lynch could perhaps lose the title to Nia Jax or Shayna Baszler over the next few months, which could set Asuka up to cash in the briefcase on a fresh opponent. The notion of Asuka winning this match isn’t crazy at all.

8% - Other

Do you remember in 2019 when Brock Lesnar showed up at the last second to win the men’s Money in the Bank ladder match? Because of that, I need to leave open the possibility that someone who is not currently advertised for the match, such as Stephanie McMahon, Ronda Rousey, or Brock Lesnar, somehow grabs the briefcase.

Regardless of who it is, the bottom line is that “Other” has just as much of a chance to win this match as the three SmackDown women combined. Hey, don’t roll your eyes at me if you think this sounds ridiculous; go direct your anger at the super secret algorithm that came up with these percentages.

7% - Lacey Evans

If any woman from the blue brand can win this match, it will be Evans. She’s been hanging on the periphery of the title scene for a while, and this could be her moment to jump towards the top of the division.

Also, it’s Mother’s Day and she’s a mother. She’s not the only mother in the match, but she’s the only one who gets a boost in the super secret algorithm for it.

0.75% - Dana Brooke

Nothing in Dana Brooke’s WWE career suggests that she is suddenly in line for a championship push, or really any kind of push. If she wins this match, it will purely be for the out of nowhere WTF swerve factor.

0.25% - Carmella

Carmella has won this match before, so the almost non-existent probability of a repeat appears to be rather harsh. But she’s not Alexa Bliss, so there isn’t much reason to think WWE will continue to have her win big matches like this just for the hell of it.

Carmella’s booking over the last year shows that she is not a featured star anymore - she has only wrestled on the main card of two pay-per-views (PPVs) since last year’s Money in the Bank event, and those two PPV matches each included 15 to 30 total women. And unlike Brooke, she doesn’t even have the out of nowhere swerve factor in her corner, because she’s already won this match. It’s just hard to envision any scenario where Carmella is victorious.

Overall, it would be surprising if anyone other than Jax or Baszler wins this match. But there’s a reason why these matches don’t take place in my super-secret-algorithm-calculating Windows 95 machine. No, these matches take place in Vince McMahon’s warped fantasy land, where anything big and muscular is possible. So no matter who you are rooting for, you’ll have at least a tiny bit of hope that your favorite wrestler will come away with that briefcase.

Find out who leaves WWE headquarters with the briefcase by tuning into Money in the Bank 2020 and keeping it right here at Cageside Seats!


Who will win?

This poll is closed

  • 3%
    Dana Brooke
    (18 votes)
  • 7%
    Lacey Evans
    (38 votes)
  • 23%
    (119 votes)
  • 21%
    Nia Jax
    (111 votes)
  • 40%
    Shayna Baszler
    (209 votes)
  • 2%
    (15 votes)
510 votes total Vote Now