When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.
Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on Apr. 4 and Apr. 5 at WrestleMania 36. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.
The Cageside Seats match preview articles for WrestleMania also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.
The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.
The two pre-show matches (Gulak vs. Cesaro, Natalya vs. Morgan) were omitted because they were announced too late.
The line for Becky Lynch’s match can be interpreted as follows: “3 out of 7 predictions for Lynch’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 42.9%.”
Staff Predictions for WrestleMania 36
|Asuka & Sane vs. Bliss & Cross||1||1||1||0||0||0||1||57.1|
|Elias vs. Corbin||0||1||0||0||0||1||33.3|
|Lynch vs. Baszler||0||1||1||1||0||0||0||42.9|
|Zayn vs. Bryan||1||1||1||0||1||1||0||71.4|
|Morrison vs. Uso vs. Kingston||1||0||0||0||1||1||1||57.1|
|Owens vs. Rollins||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
|Goldberg vs. Strowman||0||1||0||0||0||0||1||28.6|
|Undertaker vs. Styles||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
|Ripley vs. Flair||1||1||0||1||0||0||0||42.9|
|Black vs. Lashley||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
|Otis vs. Ziggler||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
|Edge vs. Orton||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
|Street Profits vs. Garza & Theory||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
|SmackDown women's 5-way||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0.0|
|Cena vs. Wyatt||0||1||1||1||1||1||1||85.7|
|Lesnar vs. McIntyre||0||0||1||1||1||1||1||71.4|
These numbers add up to 75 correct predictions and 35 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for WrestleMania 36 is 68.2%.
This increases the overall predictability rating for 2020 WWE PPVs from 60.9% up to 64.9% (131 correct vs. 71 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2019 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, and 63.7%, respectively.
Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:
- 60%: Bliss & Cross
- 69%: Elias
- 31%: Becky Lynch
- 45%: Sami Zayn
- 68%: Morrison (18% Uso, 14% Kingston)
- 68%: Kevin Owens
- 53%: Braun Strowman
- 76%: Undertaker
- 32%: Charlotte Flair
- 94%: Aleister Black
- 86%: Otis
- 86%: Edge
- 91%: Street Profits
- 24%: Bayley (53% Banks, 11% Tamina, 7% Evans, 5% Naomi)
- 89%: Bray Wyatt
- 84%: Drew McIntyre
The main thing that stands out about the results from staff and the polls is that Night Two was way more predictable than Night One. The community polls reached 80%+ for the winner of six different matches from Night Two, and didn’t reach that threshold for even a single match from Night One. Overall, this was the most predictable WrestleMania event since I started grading them with this method at WrestleMania 32.
Three of the four women’s matches were among the least predictable matches of the card. The results for Bayley’s match stand out the most; it looks like her reign has lasted long enough where many people were expecting a change of direction.
The staff of Cageside Seats had a good night with predicting the winners at WrestleMania 36. How did you fare, Cagesiders?