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How predictable was Royal Rumble 2020?

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WWE.com

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on Jan. 26 at Royal Rumble 2020. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Royal Rumble also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for Daniel Bryan’s match can be interpreted as follows: “5 out of 7 predictions for Bryan’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 71.4%.”

Staff Predictions for Royal Rumble 2020

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Shorty G vs. Sheamus 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 71.4
Andrade vs. Carrillo 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 85.7
Reigns vs. Corbin 0 0 1 0 1 1 50.0
Women's Royal Rumble 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Bayley vs. Evans 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 57.1
Wyatt vs. Bryan 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 71.4
Lynch vs. Asuka 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Men's Royal Rumble 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 28.6
Total 62.5 25.0 50.0 37.5 75.0 57.1 87.5 56.4

These numbers add up to 31 correct predictions and 24 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Royal Rumble 2020 is 56.4%.

For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2019 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, and 63.7%, respectively.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 75%: Sheamus
  • 88%: Andrade
  • 89%: Roman Reigns
  • 6%: Charlotte Flair (49% Baszler, 18% Banks, 12% Rousey)
  • 71%: Bayley
  • 83%: Bray Wyatt
  • 67%: Becky Lynch
  • 35%: Drew McIntyre (31% Reigns, 9% Lesnar)

Not only did the staff completely whiff on Flair’s Royal Rumble victory, but only 6% of the community voters picked her to win. In the aftermath of Flair’s victory, there was a lot of eye-rolling and “LOLCharlotteWins” from fans who wanted someone different in that spot, but based on these numbers, The Queen’s big moment was nothing close to a foregone conclusion, despite how obvious it seems in hindsight.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a mediocre night with predicting the winners at Royal Rumble 2020. How did you fare, Cagesiders?