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How predictable was Survivor Series 2020?

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WWE.com

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on Nov. 22 at Survivor Series 2020. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Survivor Series also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The Cageside Seats staff did not make predictions for the dual brand Battle Royal that took place on the kickoff show, so that match is not included in these results.

The line for Bobby Lashley’ match can be interpreted as follows: “4 out of 7 predictions for Lashley vs. Zayn were correct, which is a predictability rating of 57.1%.”

Staff Predictions for Survivor Series 2020

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Men's Elimination Match 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 71.4
New Day vs. Street Profits 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 57.1
Lashley vs. Zayn 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 57.1
Asuka vs. Banks 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 57.1
Women's Elimination Match 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 57.1
McIntyre vs. Reigns 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 71.4
Total 50.0 66.7 50.0 50.0 100.0 50.0 66.7 61.9

These numbers add up to 26 correct predictions and 16 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Survivor Series 2020 is 61.9%.

This decreases the overall predictability rating for 2020 WWE PPVs from 65.5% down to 65.3% (355 correct vs. 189 incorrect predictions). For comparison’s sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2019 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, and 63.7%, respectively.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 68%: Raw men’s team
  • 55%: Street Profits
  • 58%: Bobby Lashley
  • 36%: Sasha Banks
  • 40%: Raw women’s team
  • 87%: Roman Reigns

Most of the matches on this card did not have an obvious winner heading into the event, aside from Roman Reigns. The community voters overwhelmingly knew that he was going to emerge as the Best of the Best in his champion vs. champion fight against Drew McIntyre. This is the third straight pay-per-view where the community voted for Roman at a greater than 80% clip. Will Kevin Owens be able bring that number down next month, assuming they fight at TLC 2020?

The two women’s matches were the only ones that fooled the community voters. It turns out that Lana is a wily veteran who duped many fans into thinking she had no chance to become the sole survivor for Team Raw.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a decent night with predicting the winners at Survivor Series 2020. How did you fare, Cagesiders?