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How predictable was Clash of Champions 2020?

WWE.com

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on Sept. 27 at Clash of Champions 2020. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Clash of Champions also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

Bayley’s match against Asuka was omitted because it was not advertised in advance of the event.

The line for Drew McIntyre’s match can be interpreted as follows: “4 out of 7 predictions for McIntyre’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 57.1%.”

Staff Predictions for Clash of Champions 2020

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Cesaro & Nakamura vs. Lucha House Party 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Hardy vs. Styles vs. Zayn 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 42.9
Asuka vs. Zelina Vega 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Bobby Lashley vs. Apollo Crews 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Street Profits vs. Garza & Andrade 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Drew McIntyre vs. Randy Orton 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 57.1
Roman Reigns vs. Jey Uso 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Total 85.7 71.4 85.7 71.4 85.7 100.0 85.7 83.7

These numbers add up to 41 correct predictions and 8 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Clash of Champions 2020 is 83.7%.

This increases the overall predictability rating for 2020 WWE PPVs from 63.6% up to 65.7% (307 correct vs. 160 incorrect predictions). For comparison’s sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2019 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, 58.7%, and 63.7%, respectively.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 85%: Cesaro & Nakamura over Lucha House Party
  • 45%: Zayn over Hardy (39%) and Styles (16%)
  • 87%: Asuka over Zelina Vega
  • 88%: Bobby Lashley over Apollo Crews
  • 60%: Street Profits over Garza & Andrade
  • 41%: Drew McIntyre over Randy Orton
  • 83%: Roman Reigns over Jey Uso

Four of these seven matches were extremely predictable, with community voting percentages above 80% and perfect scores from the staff. This includes the victories for Cesaro & Nakamura, Asuka, Lashley, and Reigns.

The Cageside staff handled the rest fine, with Sami Zayn really being the only winner that was tough to pinpoint. Some of that added unpredictability is inherently built into triple threat matches, with more choices available to select than a typical one-on-one match.

Drew McIntyre’s win over Randy Orton was not a gimme, and was one of the more difficult matches of the night to predict.

But for the most part, Clash of Champions was filled with championship matches where the defending champion was the clear favorite and successfully retained the title. These results reflect the highly predictable nature of the card.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a great night with predicting the winners at Clash of Champions 2020. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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