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How predictable was Clash of Champions 2019?

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WWE.com

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Clash of Champions 2019 (Sun., Sept. 15) from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Clash of Champions also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction, the number “0” is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for Kofi Kingston’s match can be interpreted as follows: “3 out of 7 predictions for Kingston’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 42.9%.”

Staff Predictions for Clash of Champions 2019

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Gulak vs. Carrillo vs. Dorado 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Styles vs. Alexander 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 85.7
Rollins & Strowman vs. Ziggler & Roode 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 71.4
Bayley vs. Flair 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 71.4
New Day vs. The Revival 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 57.1
Bliss & Cross vs. Fire & Desire 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 71.4
Nakamura vs. The Miz 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Lynch vs. Banks 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Kingston vs. Orton 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 42.9
Reigns vs. Rowan 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 14.3
Rollins vs. Strowman 0 1 1 1 1 1 83.3
Total 45.5 63.6 72.7 54.5 81.8 81.8 90.0 69.7

These numbers add up to 53 correct predictions and 23 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Clash of Champions 2019 is 69.7%.

This increases the overall predictability rating for 2019 WWE PPVs from 66.3% up to 66.7% (417 correct versus 208 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2018 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, and 58.7%.

The one match that threw us for a loop was Erick Rowan’s victory over Roman Reigns. Despite the reveal of Rowan as the mystery assailant who tried to murder Roman Reigns, we mostly weren’t buying him as a credible threat to the guy who main evented four consecutive WrestleMania events. It turns out that we were very, very wrong about that.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of each match:

  • 68%: Drew Gulak (20% for Carrillo, 12% for Dorado)
  • 70%: AJ Styles
  • 76%: Robert Roode & Dolph Ziggler
  • 75%: Bayley
  • 51%: The Revival
  • 76%: Alexa Bliss & Nikki Cross
  • 70%: Shinsuke Nakamura
  • 70%: Sasha Banks
  • 50%: Kofi Kingston
  • 40%: Erick Rowan

A lot of the community results are in the neighborhood of 70% for the winners, which suggests that the card had several matches with a similar level of predictability but few no doubt slam dunks.

The votes for The Revival’s match and Kingston’s match were nearly right down the 50/50 line, with Kingston in particular only beating out Orton by two votes (162 to 160).

The staff of Cageside Seats had a pretty good night with predicting the winners at Clash of Champions 2019. How did you fare, Cagesiders?