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How predictable was Extreme Rules 2019?

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WWE.com

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Extreme Rules 2019 (Sun., July 14) from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Extreme Rules also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction, the number “0” is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

Three of the 13 matches were not advertised early enough for us to make predictions, and so they were omitted from this exercise. This includes Balor vs. Nakamura, Owens vs. Ziggler, and Rollins vs. Lesnar.

The line for Bayley’s match can be interpreted as follows: “6 out of 7 predictions for Bayley’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 85.7%.”

Staff Predictions for Extreme Rules 2019

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Drew Gulak vs. Tony Nese 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Graveyard Dogs vs. Shane & McIntyre 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
The Revival vs. The Usos 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 57.1
Cesaro vs. Aleister Black 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 85.7
Bayley vs. Bliss & Cross 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Braun Strowman vs. Bobby Lashley 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 71.4
SmackDown tag title triple threat 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 14.3
Ricochet vs. AJ Styles 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 42.9
Kofi Kingston vs. Samoa Joe 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Lynch & Rollins vs. Evans & Corbin 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Total 80.0 70.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 60.0 80.0 75.7

These numbers add up to 53 correct predictions and 17 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Extreme Rules 2019 is 75.7%.

This increases the overall predictability rating for 2019 WWE PPVs from 62.7% up to 64.6% (310 correct versus 170 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2018 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, and 58.7%.

Here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of each match:

  • 82%: Drew Gulak
  • 82%: Graveyard Dogs
  • 52%: The Revival
  • 85%: Aleister Black
  • 70%: Bayley
  • 60%: Braun Strowman
  • 14%: New Day (54% for Bryan & Rowan, 33% for Heavy Machinery)
  • 49%: AJ Styles
  • 73%: Kofi Kingston
  • 89%: Lynch & Rollins

The staff of Cageside Seats had a great night with predicting the winners at Extreme Rules 2019. How did you fare, Cagesiders?