When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.
Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Stomping Grounds (Sun., June 23, 2019) from the Tacoma Dome in Tacoma, Washington. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.
The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Stomping Grounds also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.
The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction, the number “0” is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.
The line for Bayley’s match can be interpreted as follows: “6 out of 7 predictions for Bayley’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 85.7%.”
Staff Predictions for Stomping Grounds
|Nese vs. Tozawa vs. Gulak||0||1||1||1||1||1||1||85.7|
|Lynch vs. Evans||0||1||1||1||1||1||1||85.7|
|New Day vs. Owens & Zayn||0||0||0||1||1||1||0||42.9|
|Samoa Joe vs. Ricochet||1||0||0||1||1||0||1||57.1|
|Bryan & Rowan vs. Heavy Machinery||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
|Bayley vs. Bliss||0||1||1||1||1||1||1||85.7|
|Reigns vs. McIntyre||1||0||1||1||1||1||1||85.7|
|Kingston vs. Ziggler||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
|Rollins vs. Corbin||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100.0|
These numbers add up to 52 correct predictions and 11 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Stomping Grounds is 82.5%.
This increases the overall predictability rating for 2019 WWE PPVs from 59.1% up to 62.7% (257 correct versus 153 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2018 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, and 58.7%.
We have calculated predictability ratings for almost every WWE PPV (minus a few international shows) since the start of 2015, and only five events have reached 80% in this metric:
- 88.1%: Survivor Series 2015
- 85.4%: Extreme Rules 2016
- 82.6%: Fastlane 2016
- 82.5%: Stomping Grounds
- 80.6%: Elimination Chamber 2018
The most recent PPV with a higher predictability rating than Stomping Grounds was Extreme Rules 2016, which took place just over three years ago.
Only two matches (Owens/Zayn, Ricochet) had a predictability rating under 85%, and they were both matches that were added to the card during the go-home week of the event. There just wasn’t much doubt about the outcome of the five most heavily promoted matches for Stomping Grounds.
Here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of each match:
- 70%: Drew Gulak
- 83%: Becky Lynch
- 44%: Owens & Zayn
- 60%: Ricochet
- 74%: Bryan & Rowan
- 72%: Bayley
- 61%: Roman Reigns
- 77%: Kofi Kingston
- 89%: Seth Rollins
The staff of Cageside Seats had a great night with predicting the winners at Stomping Grounds. How did you fare, Cagesiders?