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How predictable was Money in the Bank 2019?

WWE.com

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Money in the Bank 2019 (Sun., May. 19) from the XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Money in the Bank also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction, the number “0” is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

Bayley’s match with Charlotte Flair was omitted because it was not advertised ahead of time.

The line for Tony Nese’s match can be interpreted as follows: “6 out of 7 predictions for Nese’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 85.7%.”

Staff Predictions for Money in the Bank 2019

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Bryan & Rowan vs. Usos 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Women's ladder match 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 42.9
Joe vs. Mysterio 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 14.3
Miz vs. McMahon 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 14.3
Nese vs. Daivari 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 85.7
Lynch vs. Evans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Lynch vs. Flair 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 28.6
Reigns vs. Elias 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Rollins vs. Styles 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Kingston vs. Owens 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 85.7
Men's ladder match 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Total 54.5 54.5 63.6 36.4 45.5 54.5 50.0 51.3

These numbers add up to 39 correct predictions and 37 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Money in the Bank 2019 is 51.3%.

This decreases the overall predictability rating for 2019 WWE PPVs from 61.3% down to 59.1% (205 correct versus 142 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2018 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, and 58.7%.

A whopping nine out of the 11 matches had a predictability rating of less than 15% or greater than 85%. There wasn’t really much in the middle, outside of the women’s ladder match (42.9%).

I considered completely omitting the men’s ladder match from consideration due to the unannounced swap of Brock Lesnar in place of Sami Zayn. But I suppose the staff members could have at least come up with a swerve finish in their predictions, so I kept it in. I did omit the Cageside poll results for that match because there was no option for readers to select Brock Lesnar as the winner.

Charlotte Flair could very well be on track to win 17 world titles, so perhaps we should have known the Queen would defeat Becky for the SmackDown women’s championship. Yet we were fooled this time, as most of the staff picked against Flair, while 67% of Cagesiders who voted also figured that Flair would lose.

Most Cagesiders expected that Miz would get his win back on Shane McMahon at this event, with 91% of of voters picking against the Best in the World.

AJ Styles and Lacey Evans never had a chance in their respective championship matches. The predictability rating for their defeats was 100%, with over 80% of both Cageside polls also voting against them.

The staff of Cageside Seats didn’t have such a great night with predicting the winners at Money in the Bank 2019. How did you fare, Cagesiders?