Reasons why each woman in the Money in the Bank ladder match will & won’t win

Women’s Money in the Bank ladder match

Ember Moon vs. Mandy Rose vs. Dana Brooke vs. Alexa Bliss vs. Bayley vs. Natalya vs. Naomi vs. Carmella

Let’s not waste any time with the “Road to Money in the Bank” or “What’s at stake?” stuff.

The participants were announced by Alexa Bliss without any explanation for why they were chosen. The build has consisted of tag and multi-person battles for “momentum”, with occasional teases about the possibility of a two-time Ms. Money in the Bank. But now inaugural winner Carmella is the only person with a chance of making that happen, so to paraphrase a Genetic Freak, the odds of that storyline bearing fruit have drastic gone down.

A contract for a title shot at the time and place of the winner’s choosing is at stake. No woman has ever lost a match where she cashed in that briefcase with that contract inside (granted, there have only been two). So whoever climbs the ladder and grabs the case tomorrow night stands a pretty good chance of becoming Raw or SmackDown Women’s champ.

Got it? Okay, now let’s break down the field - starting with the representatives from the red brand:

Naomi

Resume: Total Divas cast member, two-time SmackDown Women’s champ, WrestleMania Women’s Battle Royal winner

Why she’ll win: You can never rule Trinity Fatu out in big moments. She’s someone WWE can count on to deliver and exciting match people will respond to. A briefcase and run with the Raw Women’s title would check all the boxes for what is probably already a Hall of Fame career.
Why she won’t: Doesn’t make a ton of booking sense, as face briefcase winners always feel a little off. There wouldn’t be a ton of heat for a Becky Lynch feud, and a rivalry with Lacey Evans would make the Lady feel a little more Laura Ingraham/Tomi Lahren than anyone is probably comfortable with.

Natalya

Resume: Hart Dungeon trainee, Total Divas cast member, Divas champ, SmackDown Women’s champ

Why she’ll win: You can pretty much cut & paste the Naomi section, except Natty is a no doubter for Vince McMahon’s Hall of Fame. And she actually does make sense as a rival for whoever leaves Hartford with the red brand strap, since proving yourself against a Hart can always be a story for anyone of either alignment.
Why she won’t: It was about six years between her previous title reigns, so her next one probably won’t be until 2023 or so.

Dana Brooke

Resume: Championship caliber fitness competitor, former statistician for Titus Worldwide

Why she’ll win: Raw’s Women’s scene feels pretty depleted, and this could be a good way to quickly establish a new competitor.
Why she won’t: If WWE was going to take Brooke seriously as a title contender, it would have happened by now.

Nikki Cross

Resume: Indie & NXT darling

Why she’ll win: Both because it would immediately set her up as a player in the scene, and because it would make the fans who complain the loudest but regularly show up & tune in happy. And Triple H did say we’re the authority...
Why she won’t: She wouldn’t even be in the match if Alexa’d been cleared. I’m not even sure she’d officially assigned to Raw. These are not signs the brass have big plans for you.

And from the blue brand, we have...

Bayley

Resume: NXT Women’s champ, Raw Women’s champ, WWE Women’s Tag champ

Why she’ll win: Adult fans waver, but younger ones seem to love her, and she reportedly consistently moves merch. She’s a heck of an in-ring performer, and her role in history as a NXT Horsewoman gives her a similar aura to what Natalya gets from being a Hart Dungeon trainee. They also appeared to be starting to tweak her character to give her more edge post-Superstar Shake-up and pre-MitB “momentum” series.
Why she won’t: It’s rarely felt like Vince & his creative team are sold on Bayley, and there’s no reason to believe a consistent arc of character development, let alone a sustained push, is in her future.

Ember Moon

Resume: NXT Women’s champ

Why she’ll win: A Finn Bálor-like gimmick which stays over without needing to be explained/make sense thanks to a cool look and a dope finisher. A very good and fun to watch in-ring talent.
Why she won’t: Has shown a tendency to get sidelined with injuries throughout her WWE career, and that coule lead to some hesitancy on the part of the backstage players to elevate her much beyond the mid-card or tag scene.

Carmella

Resume: former (and future?) Total Divas cast member, Money in the Bank winner (2017), SmackDown Women’s champ

Why she’ll win: She’s more over now as a babyface than when she won as a heel, and has improved all aspects of her game since James Ellsworth threw her the briefcase and set fire to the internet two years ago.
Why she won’t: See above re: babyfaces with the briefcase rarely make for great stories. And if she’s getting pops doing dance breaks, why wouldn’t WWE just let her keep doing her thing?

Mandy Rose

Resume: Championship caliber fitness competitor, former Total Divas cast member

Why she’ll win: Corey Graves’ orgasmic reaction to her arrival on-screen is probably being fed to him by the Chairman of the company. She could take the Eva Marie gimmick pretty far, seeing as she’s much more capable between the ropes than All Red Everything was. This would signal her move to the next level.
Why she won’t: They may have bigger plans for her - ones that wouldn’t involve risking her looking like a second fiddle to Lynch or Charlotte Flair. Since the SmackDown women’s division is stacked, a briefcase win wouldn’t necessarily elevate her if fans aren’t ready to buy into her as a threat. And to this point in her career, not much has been done to make her seem like a threat.

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