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How predictable was Elimination Chamber 2019?

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Elimination Chamber 2019 (Sun., Feb. 17) from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Elimination Chamber also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction, the number “0” is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for Tozawa’s match can be interpreted as follows: “6 out of 7 predictions for Tozawa’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 85.7%.”

Staff Predictions for Elimination Chamber 2019

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Murphy vs. Tozawa 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 85.7
Women's tag team Chamber 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 71.4
Shane & Miz vs. Usos 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 14.3
Lashley & Rush vs. Balor 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 42.9
Rousey vs. Riott 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Strowman vs. Corbin 1 0 0 0 0 0 16.7
WWE championship Chamber 1 0 1 1 1 0 66.7
Total 71.4 71.4 57.1 33.3 42.9 57.1 66.7 57.4

These numbers add up to 27 correct predictions and 20 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Elimination Chamber 2019 is 57.4%.

This decreases the overall predictability rating for 2019 WWE PPVs from 63.5% down to 60.9% (67 correct versus 43 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2018 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, and 58.7%.

Coming into this event, there was a lot of talk about how these matches were too predictable. Well this card turned out to be harder to predict than it looked, thanks to Shane McMahon’s match and Braun Strowman’s match. A whopping 85% of the voters in the poll figured Strowman would win, with 78% in favor of McMahon and Miz.

Who knew that Baron friggin’ Corbin would join Brock Lesnar and Roman Reigns as the only men to pin Strowman’s shoulders to the mat over the last three years? Do you think the fact that Strowman has finally been pinned by a mid-carder opens up the floodgates in terms of who can potentially pin The Monster going forward?

The staff of Cageside Seats had an okay night with predicting the winners at Elimination Chamber 2019. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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