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How predictable was Royal Rumble 2019?

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Royal Rumble 2019 (Sun., Jan. 27) from Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Royal Rumble also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The pre-show match featuring Bobby Roode and Chad Gable was omitted from this exercise because the match was announced too late for our staff to submit predictions.

The line for Daniel Bryan’s match can be interpreted as follows: “7 out of 7 predictions for Bryan’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 100.0%.”

Staff Predictions for Royal Rumble 2019

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Rusev vs. Nakamura 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 14.3
Cruiserweight 4-Way 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 57.1
Asuka vs. Lynch 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 57.1
The Bar vs. Miz & Shane 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Rousey vs. Banks 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 85.7
Women's Royal Rumble 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 57.1
Bryan vs. Styles 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Lesnar vs. Balor 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 57.1
Men's Royal Rumble 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 57.1
Total 55.6 33.3 77.8 44.4 88.9 66.7 77.8 63.5

These numbers add up to 40 correct predictions and 23 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Royal Rumble 2019 is 63.5%.

For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2018 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, and 58.7%.

The results show that Shane McMahon’s victory over The Bar was never really in doubt. Considering how much television time his story with the Miz has received over the last few months, it seemed pretty clear that Shane O’Mac would cement his place as a member of the best tag team in the world.

Bryan’s victory over Styles was even easier to predict, though I doubt many folks expected to see Erick Rowan play a role in the finish.

The poll results incorrectly favored Balor (61%) over Lesnar (39%). Apparently a whole lot of readers really did believe in Finn.

Finally, I can’t help but point out that Rusev’s loss to Shinsuke Nakamura was extremely difficult to predict. This reminds me of that old saying: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 18 times since July 2016, shame on me.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a decent night with predicting the winners at Royal Rumble 2019. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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