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How predictable was TLC 2019?

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on Dec. 15 at TLC 2019. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for TLC also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. Empty boxes indicate where no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The pre-show match (Humberto Carrillo vs. Andrade) was not advertised early enough for us to make predictions, so it was omitted.

The Viking Raiders’ match did not have a winner, but the Cageside poll for this match did not include that voting option, so that one poll was omitted.

The line for Bobby Lashley’s match can be interpreted as follows: “2 out of 7 predictions for Lashley’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 28.6%.”

Staff Predictions for TLC 2019

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
New Day vs. The Revival 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Black vs. Murphy 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 71.4
Viking Raiders vs. The O.C. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Reigns vs. Corbin 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 14.3
Wyatt vs. The Miz 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Rusev vs. Lashley 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 28.6
Kabuki Warriors vs. Lynch & Flair 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 57.1
Total 28.6 71.4 57.1 42.9 57.1 42.9 66.7 52.1

These numbers add up to 25 correct predictions and 23 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for TLC 2019 is 52.1%.

This decreases the overall predictability rating for 2019 WWE PPVs from 64.5% down to 63.7% (474 correct versus 270 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2018 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, and 58.7%.

Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:

  • 66%: New Day
  • 89%: Aleister Black
  • 11%: King Corbin
  • 82%: Bray Wyatt
  • 22%: Bobby Lashley
  • 65%: Kabuki Warriors

As you can see from both the staff results and the individual poll results, most people did not expect King Corbin would defeat Roman Reigns at TLC. Once that humiliating dog food angle happened, Roman Reigns pretty much had to win the pay-per-view match, right? I guess not!

The staff of Cageside Seats had a mediocre night with predicting the winners at TLC 2019. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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