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When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.
Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place on Nov. 24 at Survivor Series 2019. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.
The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Survivor Series also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.
The following chart contains the prediction results for these matches. The leftmost column includes the match list. Below each staff member’s name, the number “1” is a correct prediction and the number “0” is an incorrect prediction. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.
Two of the pre-show matches (Tag Team Battle Royal, Rush vs. Kalisto vs. Tozawa) were not advertised early enough for us to make predictions, so they were omitted.
The line for Nakamura’s match can be interpreted as follows: “2 out of 7 predictions for Nakamura’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 28.6%.”
Staff Predictions for Survivor Series 2019
| Match | Geno | Sean | Cain | Claire | Kyle | Stella | Polls | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match | Geno | Sean | Cain | Claire | Kyle | Stella | Polls | Total |
| New Day vs. Viking Raiders vs Undisputed Era | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14.3 |
| Women's Elimination Match | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 42.9 |
| Styles vs. Nakamura vs. Strong | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28.6 |
| Cole vs. Dunne | 1 | 100.0 | ||||||
| Wyatt vs. Bryan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 |
| Men's Elimination Match | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 42.9 |
| Lesnar vs. Mysterio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 71.4 |
| Lynch vs. Bayley vs. Baszler | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14.3 |
| Total | 57.1 | 42.9 | 42.9 | 14.3 | 85.7 | 28.6 | 50.0 | 46.0 |
These numbers add up to 23 correct predictions and 27 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Survivor Series 2019 is 46.0%.
This decreases the overall predictability rating for 2019 WWE PPVs from 65.9% down to 64.5% (449 correct versus 247 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability ratings each year from from 2015 through 2018 were 63.4%, 61.1%, 61.6%, and 58.7%.
Now here are the voting percentages from the Cageside community polls for the winners of these matches:
- 29%: Viking Raiders (43% for TUE, 28% for New Day)
- 61%: NXT Women (23% for Raw, 17% for SmackDown)
- 20%: Roderick Strong (54% for Styles, 26% for Nakamura)
- 70%: Adam Cole
- 87%: Bray Wyatt
- 33%: SmackDown Men (53% for NXT, 15% for Raw)
- 68%: Brock Lesnar
- 29%: Shayna Baszler (39% for Lynch, 32% for Bayley)
The staff of Cageside Seats struggled with predicting the winners at Survivor Series 2019. How did you fare, Cagesiders?