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How predictable was SummerSlam 2018?

WWE.com

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at SummerSlam (Sun., Aug. 19, 2018) from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for SummerSlam 2018 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for Balor’s match can be interpreted as follows: “4 out of 7 predictions for Balor’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 57.1%.”

Staff Predictions for SummerSlam 2018

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Rusev & Lana vs. Almas & Vega 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 71.4
Alexander vs. Gulak 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 28.6
B-Team vs. Revival 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 42.9
Ziggler vs. Rollins 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 71.4
Bludgeon Bros vs. New Day 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 71.4
Strowman vs. Owens 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 85.7
Carmella vs. Becky vs. Charlotte 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 42.9
Styles vs. Joe 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 28.6
Bryan vs. Miz 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 42.9
Balor vs. Corbin 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 57.1
Nakamura vs. Hardy 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Bliss vs. Rousey 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Lesnar vs. Reigns 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 85.7
Total 53.8 38.5 84.6 61.5 76.9 53.8 69.2 62.6

These numbers add up to 57 correct predictions and 34 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for SummerSlam 2018 is 62.6%.

This increases the overall predictability rating for 2018 WWE PPVs from 56.0% up to 57.1% (323 correct versus 243 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%, in 2016 it was 61.1%, and in 2017 it was 61.6%.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a decent night with predicting the winners at SummerSlam 2018. How did you fare, Cagesiders?