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How predictable was Extreme Rules 2018?

WWE.com

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Extreme Rules (Sun., July 15, 2018) from the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Extreme Rules 2018 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for Ziggler’s match can be interpreted as follows: “3 out of 7 predictions for Ziggler’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 42.9%.”

Staff Predictions for Extreme Rules 2018

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Sin Cara vs. Almas 1 100.0
New Day vs. SaniTY 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 57.1
Deleters of Worlds vs. B-Team 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 28.6
Balor vs. Corbin 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 57.1
Carmella vs. Asuka 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 71.4
Hardy vs. Nakamura 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 71.4
Strowman vs. Owens 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 14.3
Bludgeon Bros vs. Team Hell No 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 14.3
Reigns vs. Lashley 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 14.3
Bliss vs. Jax 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 85.7
Styles vs. Rusev 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Ziggler vs. Rollins 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 42.9
Total 54.5 45.5 45.5 36.4 72.7 45.5 58.3 51.3

These numbers add up to 40 correct predictions and 38 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Extreme Rules 2018 is 51.3%.

This decreases the overall predictability rating for 2018 WWE PPVs from 57.0% down to 56.0% (266 correct versus 209 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%, in 2016 it was 61.1%, and in 2017 it was 61.6%.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a rough night with predicting the winners at Extreme Rules 2018. How did you fare, Cagesiders?