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How predictable was Money in the Bank 2018?

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WWE.com

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Money in the Bank (Sun., June 17, 2018) from the Allstate Arena just outside Chicago, Illinois. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Money in the Bank 2018 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The impromptu match between Nia Jax and Alexa Bliss was not included because it was not advertised ahead of time.

The line for the Bryan’s match can be interpreted as follows: “5 out of 7 predictions for Bryan’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 71.4%.”

Staff Predictions for Money in the Bank 2018

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Bludgeon Brothers vs. The Club 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 85.7
Bryan vs. Big Cass 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 71.4
Lashley vs. Zayn 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Rollins vs. Elias 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 71.4
Women's Ladder Match 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 14.3
Reigns vs. Mahal 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 85.7
Carmella vs. Asuka 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 71.4
Styles vs. Nakamura 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 42.9
Jax vs. Rousey 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 71.4
Men's Ladder Match 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Total 70.0 60.0 70.0 50.0 80.0 30.0 70.0 61.4

These numbers add up to 43 correct predictions and 27 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Money in the Bank 2018 is 61.4%.

The two ladder matches had a combined predictability rating of just 7.1%, while the rest of the card had a predictability rating of 75.0%.

This increases the overall predictability rating for 2018 WWE PPVs from 56.0% up to 57.0% (226 correct versus 171 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%, in 2016 it was 61.1%, and in 2017 it was 61.6%.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a decent night with predicting the winners at Money in the Bank 2018. How did you fare, Cagesiders?