clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

How predictable was WrestleMania 34?

WWE.com

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at WrestleMania 34 (Sun., April 8, 2018) from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for WrestleMania 34 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction and the number "0" is an incorrect prediction. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for the Andre Battle Royal can be interpreted as follows: “2 out of 7 predictions for the Andre Battle Royal were correct, which is a predictability rating of 28.6%.”

Staff Predictions for WrestleMania 34

Match Geno Sean Cain Rev Kyle Pete Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Rev Kyle Pete Polls Total
Andre Battle Royal 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 28.6
Alexander vs. Ali 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 57.1
Women's Battle Royal 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 14.3
Miz vs. Balor vs. Rollins 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 14.3
Flair vs. Asuka 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 14.3
Orton vs. Roode vs. Rusev vs. Mahal 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 28.6
Rousey & Angle vs. Steph & Triple H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Usos vs. New Day vs. Bludgeon Bros 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 42.9
Undertaker vs. Cena 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 57.1
Bryan & Shane vs. Owens & Zayn 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 28.6
Bliss vs. Jax 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 71.4
Styles vs. Nakamura 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 28.6
The Bar vs. Strowman & Some Kid 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 71.4
Lesnar vs. Reigns 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
21.4 64.3 21.4 35.7 35.7 42.9 57.1 39.8

These numbers add up to 39 correct predictions and 59 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for WrestleMania 34 is 39.8%.

This decreases the overall predictability rating for 2018 WWE PPVs from 63.6% down to 52.2% (107 correct versus 98 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%, in 2016 it was 61.1%, and in 2017 it was 61.6%.

This is the third lowest predictability rating for any WWE PPV since the start of 2015, trailing only Payback 2017 (39.6%) and Elimination Chamber 2015 (38.9%). The level of futility at WrestleMania 34 is more staggering though, because that percentage was calculated over 98 separate predictions, whereas Elimination Chamber 2015 and Payback 2017 combined for 84 separate predictions.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a hilariously awful night with predicting the winners at WrestleMania 34. How did you fare, Cagesiders?