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How predictable was Elimination Chamber 2018?

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Five different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Elimination Chamber 2018 (Sun., Feb. 25, 2018) from the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Elimination Chamber 2018 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction and the number "0" is an incorrect prediction. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for Bray Wyatt’s match can be interpreted as follows: “5 out of 6 predictions for Wyatt’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 83.3%.”

Staff Predictions for Elimination Chamber 2018

Match Geno Sean Cain Rev Kyle Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Rev Kyle Polls Total
Gallows & Anderson vs. Miztourage 1 0 1 1 1 1 83.3
Women's Elimination Chamber 1 0 1 0 0 0 33.3
The Bar vs. Titus Worldwide 1 0 1 1 1 1 83.3
Asuka vs. Nia Jax 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Matt Hardy vs. Bray Wyatt 1 0 1 1 1 1 83.3
Men's Elimination Chamber 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
100.0 33.3 100.0 83.3 83.3 83.3 80.6

These numbers add up to 29 correct predictions and 7 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Elimination Chamber 2018 is 80.6%. For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%, in 2016 it was 61.1%, and in 2017 it was 61.6%.

Since we began assigning predictability ratings over three years ago with Royal Rumble 2015, this is only the fourth PPV to ever reach 80% or higher in this metric. The other events on that list include Survivor Series 2015, Fastlane 2016, and Extreme Rules 2016.

It’s not surprising that this card was so predictable considering that Asuka and Roman Reigns were such heavy favorites and there were only a small number of matches on the card.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a terrific night with predicting the winners at Elimination Chamber 2018. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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