Predicting the match order at TLC 2018

It’s one thing to predict the winners and losers at TLC, but how about taking a guess at the match order on that card?

WWE has announced 12 different segments for TLC 2018.

Here is my subjective view of how important each of these 12 segments rank on the TLC card, ordered from most important to least important.

1. Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair vs. Asuka
2. Daniel Bryan vs. AJ Styles
3. Seth Rollins vs. Dean Ambrose
4. Ronda Rousey vs. Nia Jax
5. Braun Strowman vs. Baron Corbin
6. The Bar vs. The Usos vs. The New Day
7. Rey Mysterio vs. Randy Orton
8. Finn Balor vs. Drew McIntyre
9. Natalya vs. Ruby Riott
10. Elias vs. Bobby Lashley
11. R-Truth & Carmella vs. Jinder Mahal & Alicia Fox
12. Buddy Murphy vs. Cedric Alexander

Pre-show matches

I find it hard to believe that all 12 of these matches will make the cut for the main card of TLC. The only WWE pay-per-view (PPV) events this year that included even 11 matches on the main card were WrestleMania 34 and Crown Jewel.

As of the time of this writing, WWE has not announced which match(es) will be moved to the Kickoff show. Therefore I’m going to take my best guess, which means I’m chopping the bottom two matches off the main card. The Mixed Match Challenge Final has “pre-show” written all over it, while the Cruiserweights usually have an uphill battle to get the spotlight when it comes to events like this.

I am going to exclude both of those matches from the remainder of this exercise, leaving me with 10 total segments on the main card of TLC.

Main event

The top five matches are all candidates to headline this event.

Becky’s match has the best chance to main event TLC. This fight features the most popular star in the company, a top title, an interesting story, and high potential for Ronda Rousey interference. That sounds like a clear cut main event to me.

WWE doesn’t have a well-established track record of headlining PPV events with women’s matches though, so it’s certainly possible that Bryan’s WWE Championship match could close out the night. There’s also a chance that a major angle is planned for Strowman and Corbin.

Any other choice besides Lynch vs. Flair vs. Asuka in the main event would be misguided, so hopefully WWE makes the obvious decision.

Opening match

The opening match of the night is usually one of the mid-level attractions with good work rate that doesn’t require a dedicated video package ahead of time to hype it up.

There aren’t a ton of good candidates for this spot. The top five matches are all too important, while most of the lower matches don’t feel hot enough for the opening spot.

The best two options that stand out to me are New Day’s tag match or Mysterio’s Chairs match. Maybe McIntyre and Balor have a shot too, but Balor’s absence from Raw this week makes their match at TLC feel a bit lost in the shuffle.

The tag match feels like the safest bet to start the show off with fast-paced action that will get the crowd hyped up for the rest of the night.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: The Bar vs. The Usos vs. The New Day
Segment 2:
Segment 3:
Segment 4:
Segment 5:
Segment 6:
Segment 7:
Segment 8:
Segment 9:
Segment 10: Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair vs. Asuka

General structure

This card is packed and makes me feel foolish for saying that Extreme Rules 2018 was the hardest event I’ve tried to predict the match order for. Hell, I already feel completely defeated and lost simply for having to guess at which matches will be on the pre-show.

But I have to figure out some way to make sense of this mess, so here are three general assumptions I will try to follow:

I am going to spread out the three women’s matches. Natalya’s match has the lowest stakes and should take place early in the night. Rousey’s match has pretty much lost all of it’s heat and can find a spot in the middle of the card somewhere. Becky’s match is the main event.

I think it makes sense for Corbin’s match to be the last Raw men’s match of the night. If Corbin is getting fired as GM at the end of his match, he’ll probably first abuse his powers in earlier matches to screw over some of his adversaries like Balor, Rollins, and Elias.

Finally, I will try to avoid anything greater than three consecutive matches from the same brand.

Lower card

Segment 2 is usually one of the least important matches of the night. Lashley vs. Elias fits that description pretty well. There will be ladders involved in the main event and possibly Corbin’s match as well, so it makes sense to get the guitar ladder match out of the way early in the night.

I also want to put Ruby’s match early in the night, so I am going to fill out Segments 2 and 3 with these two matches, in some order. Lashley’s match seems like it has great potential to be a dud, so I’m sticking it in Segment 2, with Ruby going in Segment 3.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: The Bar vs. The Usos vs. The New Day
Segment 2: Elias vs. Bobby Lashley
Segment 3: Natalya vs. Ruby Riott
Segment 4:
Segment 5:
Segment 6:
Segment 7:
Segment 8:
Segment 9:
Segment 10: Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair vs. Asuka

Mid card

After putting those two lukewarm matches in Segments 2 and 3, I think it’s important to put something big in Segment 4. The back end of this card is pretty loaded so I think Ambrose versus Rollins can go in Segment 4 and give the audience a major match to sink their teeth into.

That’s three consecutive Raw matches, so I’m going to put a SmackDown match in Segment 5. The only choices left are Orton or Bryan. With Rollins and Ambrose being a major match in Segment 4, the WWE Championship should be saved for later in the night. That means Orton vs. Mysterio lands in Segment 5.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: The Bar vs. The Usos vs. The New Day
Segment 2: Elias vs. Bobby Lashley
Segment 3: Natalya vs. Ruby Riott
Segment 4: Seth Rollins vs. Dean Ambrose
Segment 5: Rey Mysterio vs. Randy Orton
Segment 6:
Segment 7:
Segment 8:
Segment 9:
Segment 10: Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair vs. Asuka

Segment 6 still feels too early for Styles and Bryan. I don’t want to put Corbin’s match before McIntyre, so Segment 6 will be either Balor vs. McIntyre or Rousey vs. Jax. I think Rousey’s match is a better change of pace from the prior two matches, so I’m putting Ronda and Nia in Segment 6.

Upper card

I really do need to get McIntyre’s match out of the way before Corbin’s, so Balor and Drew will end up in Segment 7.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: The Bar vs. The Usos vs. The New Day
Segment 2: Elias vs. Bobby Lashley
Segment 3: Natalya vs. Ruby Riott
Segment 4: Seth Rollins vs. Dean Ambrose
Segment 5: Rey Mysterio vs. Randy Orton
Segment 6: Ronda Rousey vs. Nia Jax
Segment 7: Finn Balor vs. Drew McIntyre
Segment 8:
Segment 9:
Segment 10: Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair vs. Asuka

Balor vs. McIntyre does feel a bit out of place this late in the night. Considering the rumors that Braun Strowman might not even wrestle at TLC, perhaps McIntyre’s match will somehow merge with Corbin’s and they will run back-to-back? It’s really hard to figure out how to deal with the Strowman situation.

If I place Corbin in Segment 8, that means I’ll have Bryan vs. Styles right before the main event. That doesn’t seem right because I don’t think WWE will close out the night with two consecutive SmackDown matches.

However, if I put Corbin in Segment 9, that means there will be two consecutive TLC matches to end the night. That doesn’t seem plausible either. Perhaps my earlier assumptions have led me down an impractical path.

But you know what? The Strowman match is such a wild card that I can totally see a scenario where all the tables and ladders are set up but aren’t even used for their match. Maybe Corbin starts a 10-count for the forfeit, and Strowman simply shows up to powerslam him for a squash win. WWE can then quickly go right into the women’s TLC match without having to rearrange much of the ringside area.

Maybe that sounds crazy, but it’s the best thing I can come up with. That means Bryan will go in Segment 8 and Corbin in Segment 9.

Finalized card

So here is my final prediction for the match order at TLC, along with guesses on the bell-to-bell match times.

Segment 1: The Bar vs. The Usos vs. The New Day (14 minutes)
Segment 2: Elias vs. Bobby Lashley (7)
Segment 3: Natalya vs. Ruby Riott (7)
Segment 4: Seth Rollins vs. Dean Ambrose (15)
Segment 5: Rey Mysterio vs. Randy Orton (11)
Segment 6: Ronda Rousey vs. Nia Jax (8)
Segment 7: Finn Balor vs. Drew McIntyre (12)
Segment 8: Daniel Bryan vs. AJ Styles (17)
Segment 9: Braun Strowman vs. Baron Corbin (5)
Segment 10: Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair vs. Asuka (20)

I am keeping several of the match times short to account for time restraints. These times add up to 116 minutes, which is doable for a four hour PPV.

That’s my prediction for the match order at TLC. What’s yours?