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How predictable was Evolution?

When a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats usually offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Evolution (Sun., Oct. 28, 2018) from the NYCB Live arena in Uniondale, New York. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Evolution also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and empty spaces indicate that no prediction data was available. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

The line for Toni Storm’s match can be interpreted as follows: “5 out of 7 predictions for Storm’s match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 71.4%.”

Staff Predictions for Evolution

Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Claire Kyle Stella Polls Total
Trish & Lita vs. Mickie & Alicia 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 85.7
20-Woman Battle Royal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Toni Storm vs. Io Shirai 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 71.4
Sasha, Bayley, Natalya vs. Riott Squad 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 71.4
Kairi Sane vs. Shayna Baszler 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 85.7
Ronda Rousey vs. Nikki Bella 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 85.7
Total 71.4 42.9 71.4 28.6 71.4 42.9 71.4 57.1

These numbers add up to 28 correct predictions and 21 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Evolution is 57.1%.

The overall predictability rating for 2018 WWE PPVs remains steady at 57.4% (384 correct versus 285 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%, in 2016 it was 61.1%, and in 2017 it was 61.6%.

One thing that stands out about these results is that Charlotte Flair’s loss was no surprise. Nearly 87% of the 543 total votes cast by the Cageside community were in favor of her opponent, Becky Lynch. Considering Charlotte’s past history with winning on PPV, it feels a bit strange that her loss at Evolution was such an easy call.

The poll result for Trish’s match is also worth a mention. 305 votes were cast for a Trish & Lita victory, with only 14 votes in the other direction. With 96% of the vote in favor of Trish & Lita, it certainly looks like the late removal of Alexa Bliss from that match really did take the unpredictability out of the fight.

The staff of Cageside Seats had an average night with predicting the winners at Evolution. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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