Predicting the match order at Evolution

It’s one thing to predict the winners and losers at Evolution, but how about taking a guess at the match order on that card?

WWE has announced 7 different segments for the main card of Evolution.

Here is my subjective view of how important each of these 7 segments rank on the Evolution card, ordered from most important to least important.

1. Ronda Rousey vs. Nikki Bella
2. Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair
3. Trish Stratus & Lita vs. Alicia Fox & Mickie James
4. Women’s Battle Royal Match
5. Kairi Sane vs. Shayna Baszler
6. Toni Storm vs. Io Shirai
7. Sasha Banks, Bayley, Natalya vs. The Riott Squad

I think WWE will treat just about all the main roster matches as being more important to this card than everything else. That’s the main reason I am bumping the Battle Royal up a couple spots from where I might normally place it. With Asuka in the mix along with returning stars like Alundra Blayze, Torrie Wilson, and Kelly Kelly, I think the Battle Royal will receive a lot of time and be more than just a filler match.

Main event

The main event of this card will be either the Raw or SmackDown women’s championship match.

Becky and Charlotte will very likely have the best match of the night, but that doesn’t guarantee they will close out the night. Ronda Rousey’s promo on Raw where she dropped the “John Cena’s bedroom” line was pretty much the point where Rousey and Bella secured the main event spot at Evolution, if it was ever in doubt. Rousey is the biggest star on this card, and the biggest star usually lands in the main event segment.

Opening match

The opening match of the night is usually one of the mid-level attractions with good work rate that doesn’t require a dedicated video package ahead of time to hype it up.

I would be surprised if WWE didn’t start the show with a main roster match. With that assumption in mind, the viable candidates for the opening match include Sasha, Trish, or the Battle Royal.

The Battle Royal is a good bet to get the crowd hyped up, considering the mix of current and past stars. But these matches usually involve most of the participants already being in the ring while the five or so biggest stars of the match get a fancy entrance. I think it would be awkward to kick off this PPV with the ring already filled with a bunch of superstars without individual entrances, or to start the show with a dozen or more rapid-fire entrances. It makes more sense to do that in the middle of the card.

Thus far everything about Trish’s match feels like it’s heading in the wrong direction, and I don’t think it’s a safe bet to produce a good match. I would avoid it for the opening match if possible.

That leaves Sasha Banks for the opening match, and I think she’s the best choice. Considering that her recent injury caused her to miss out on a marquee match on this night, I think giving her the very first entrance on this historic show would still be pretty cool to see. And of course, her match with Natalya, Bayley, and the Riott Squad is a reliable bet to deliver fast-paced and exciting action from start to finish.

Ah, but here is the swerve. I just realized that WWE announced the first 30 minutes of this event will be simulcast on Twitter. That means the show could potentially open with a lengthy Stephanie McMahon promo giving herself the big spotlight, and from there they will probably choose an opening match with more star power than the Riott Squad.

WWE can eat up that entire half hour with a Stephanie promo and then entrances and the beginning portion of the Battle Royal, so that’s my choice for the first match.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: Women’s Battle Royal Match
Segment 2:
Segment 3:
Segment 4:
Segment 5:
Segment 6:
Segment 7: Ronda Rousey vs. Nikki Bella

NXT Championship and Mae Young Classic

Segment 2 is often reserved for one of the least important matches of the night. I think there’s a good chance that one of the two matches that don’t include main roster talent (NXT women’s championship match, Mae Young Classic finals) will end up in this spot.

Kairi Sane’s match has higher stakes than Io Shirai’s match, so I’m putting the finals of the Mae Young Classic in Segment 2.

I don’t think WWE will book these two matches in consecutive segments, but I think the NXT women’s championship match will take place before the other two championship matches. I also don’t expect WWE to end the night with three straight championship matches. That makes Segment 4 the best spot for Kairi Sane versus Shayna Baszler.

That gives me the following card:

Segment 1: Women’s Battle Royal Match
Segment 2: Toni Storm vs. Io Shirai
Segment 3:
Segment 4: Kairi Sane vs. Shayna Baszler
Segment 5:
Segment 6:
Segment 7: Ronda Rousey vs. Nikki Bella

Everything else

There are three spots left for Becky, Trish, and Sasha.

Becky will wrestle in either Segment 5 or Segment 6. The main issue to consider here is, will WWE choose to put a buffer match between the Raw and SmackDown championship matches, or will both championship matches run back-to-back to end the night?

This event only has seven advertised matches thus far. I really don’t think there is a need for a cool-down match late in the night. Therefore I am just going to end the night with Becky in Segment 6 and Rousey in the main event.

The only remaining choice is to decide what will end up in Segment 3 and Segment 5 between Trish and Sasha. The loss of Alexa Bliss does hurt the viability of Trish’s match as one of the main attractions for Evolution, but I’m still assuming that stars from the past (Trish, Lita) will be presented as more than important than current stars (Sasha, Bayley, etc). That means Sasha gets Segment 3 and Trish gets Segment 5.

Finalized card

So here is my final prediction for the match order at Evolution, along with guesses on the bell-to-bell match times.

Segment 1: Women’s Battle Royal Match (15 minutes)
Segment 2: Toni Storm vs. Io Shirai (12)
Segment 3: Sasha Banks, Bayley, Natalya vs. The Riott Squad (12)
Segment 4: Kairi Sane vs. Shayna Baszler (13)
Segment 5: Trish Stratus & Lita vs. Alicia Fox & Mickie James (8)
Segment 6: Becky Lynch vs. Charlotte Flair (18)
Segment 7: Ronda Rousey vs. Nikki Bella (11)

That’s my prediction for the match order at Evolution. What’s yours?