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How predictable was Extreme Rules 2017?

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Five different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Extreme Rules 2017 (Sun., June 4, 2017) from the Royal Farms Arena in Baltimore, Maryland. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Extreme Rules 2017 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction and the number "0" is an incorrect prediction. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

Kalisto’s match with Apollo Crews is omitted because it was not advertised ahead of time, and so no predictions were made for that match.

The line for the Fatal 5-Way match can be interpreted as follows: “1 out of 6 predictions for the Fatal 5-Way match was correct, which is a predictability rating of 16.7%.”

Staff Predictions for Extreme Rules 2017

Match Geno Sean Cain Kyle Rev Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Kyle Rev Polls Total
Ambrose vs. Miz 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Banks & Swann vs. Fox & Dar 1 0 1 1 1 1 83.3
Alexa vs. Bayley 1 1 0 1 0 1 66.7
Hardyz vs. Cesaro & Sheamus 1 0 0 1 1 1 66.7
Neville vs. Aries 0 0 1 1 1 0 50.0
Fatal 5-Way 0 1 0 0 0 0 16.7
66.7 50.0 50.0 83.3 66.7 66.7 63.9

These numbers add up to 23 correct predictions and 13 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Extreme Rules 2017 is 63.9%.

This raises the overall predictability rating for 2017 WWE PPVs from 57.7% up to 58.4% (199 correct versus 142 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4% and the for 2016 PPVs it was 61.1%.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a good night with predicting the winners at Extreme Rules 2017. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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