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How predictable was Money in the Bank 2017?

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Five different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Money in the Bank 2017 (Sun., June 18, 2017) from the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Money in the Bank 2017 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the full match list. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction and the number "0" is an incorrect prediction. The rightmost column contains the overall predictability rating for every match, and the very last row shows the overall accuracy of each individual staff member.

Breezango’s match with the Ascension is omitted because it was not advertised ahead of time, and so no predictions were made for that match. But the Ascension receives the consolation prize of a header picture spotlight for their unpredictability in being named as Breezango’s assailants.

The line for the women’s ladder match can be interpreted as follows: “2 out of 6 predictions for the Women’s Money in the Bank Ladder Match were correct, which is a predictability rating of 33.3%.”

Staff Predictions for Money in the Bank 2017

Match Geno Sean Cain Kyle Rev Polls Total
Match Geno Sean Cain Kyle Rev Polls Total
Hype Bros vs. Colons 0 0 1 1 1 1 66.7
Women's MITB 0 1 0 0 0 1 33.3
Usos vs. New Day 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Naomi vs. Lana 0 0 1 1 1 1 66.7
Mahal vs. Orton 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
Men's MITB 0 1 1 1 0 1 66.7
16.7 50.0 66.7 66.7 50.0 83.3 55.6

These numbers add up to 20 correct predictions and 16 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Money in the Bank 2017 is 55.6%. The predictors all figured the Usos would retain their championships, but the countout decision in New Day’s favor tripped everyone up.

This lowers the overall predictability rating for 2017 WWE PPVs from 58.4% down to 58.1% (219 correct versus 158 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4% and the for 2016 PPVs it was 61.1%.

The staff of Cageside Seats had an okay night with predicting the winners at Money in the Bank 2017. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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