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Reverse Momentum Theory results for Extreme Rules 2017

WWE.com

When it comes to predicting the winners and losers of pay-per-view (PPV) matches, there is a common belief that Reverse Momentum Theory will often play a large role in determining which wrestlers will get their hands raised in victory.

This theory essentially says that the wrestler who doesn’t have momentum heading into the PPV will probably end up winning the PPV match.

With that in mind, it’s time to find out how strongly WWE adhered to Reverse Momentum Theory in determining the winners at Extreme Rules 2017.

In order to do this, I am going to use the live blogs and results pages here at Cageside Seats to determine which wrestlers had the momentum coming out of the go-home episodes of Raw and 205 Live.

Right off the bat, I have a big problem because I have no clue if I should count 205 Live in determining momentum for the cruiserweight matches. My assumption is that the audience of 205 Live is a small fraction of the audience for Raw, so perhaps the final impression made on Raw is the only sign of momentum that matters. Speaking for me personally, the main reason I picked Neville to beat Austin Aries at Extreme Rules 2017 was because Aries tapped Neville out to gain the momentum on Raw. I had no clue that Neville stood tall at the end of 205 Live; it’s a data point that meant nothing to me.

For now, I am going to track both cases separately.

Match #1: Kalisto defeats Apollo Crews

Go-home show result:

Kalisto vs. Titus O'Neil
Titus O'Neil wins by pinfall with a victory roll pin and a handful of tights.

Kalisto was pinned on Raw, giving Apollo Crews the momentum. Kalisto ended up winning at the PPV, so Reverse Momentum Theory holds up.

Match #2: The Miz defeats Dean Ambrose

Go-home show result:

Dean Ambrose & Hardy Boyz (Jeff & Matt Hardy) over Cesaro, Sheamus, & the Miz by pinfall with a Swanton Bomb from Jeff on the Miz.

The Miz was pinned on Raw, giving Ambrose the momentum. Ambrose ended up losing at the PPV, so Reverse Momentum Theory holds up.

Match #3: Banks & Swann defeat Fox & Dar

Go-home Raw result:

Noam Dar vs. Rich Swann
Rich Swann wins by pinfall with the Phoenix Splash.

Go-home 205 Live result:

Noam Dar def. Rich Swann via pinfall

Swann had the momentum at the end of Raw, but Dar had it at the end of 205 Live. Swann won on PPV, so Reverse Momentum Theory holds if you count 205 Live, and it fails if you don’t count 205 Live.

Match #4: Alexa Bliss defeats Bayley

Go-home show result:

She throws a few things from the table at Bliss before pointing to the kendo stick and climbing, but Alexa cuts her off before going under the table for a kendo stick she planted earlier and cracking it across her back.

Alexa’s vicious attack gave her the momentum on Raw, and she also won the PPV match. Reverse Momentum Theory fails to hold.

Match #5: Sheamus & Cesaro defeat The Hardy Boyz

Go-home show result:

Dean Ambrose & Hardy Boyz (Jeff & Matt Hardy) over Cesaro, Sheamus, & the Miz by pinfall with a Swanton Bomb from Jeff on the Miz.

Cesaro & Sheamus lost to the Hardyz in 6-man tag team action on Raw. The Hardyz then lost the PPV match, so Reverse Momentum Theory holds.

Match #6: Neville defeats Austin Aries

Go-home Raw result:

Austin Aries & Jack Gallagher vs. Neville & TJP
Austin Aries & Jack Gallagher win by submission with Last Chancery from Aries on Neville.

Go-home 205 Live result:

Aries breaks free, but the champ puts him down again and locks in Rings of Saturn while Perkins stomps the injured knee. It takes three referees to get Neville off of him as the show ends.

Aries had the momentum at the end of Raw, but Neville had it at the end of 205 Live. Neville won on PPV, so Reverse Momentum Theory fails if you count 205 Live, but it holds if you don’t count 205 Live.

Match #7: Samoa Joe defeats Rollins, Reigns, Balor, and Wyatt

Go-home show results:

Bray Wyatt vs. Finn Balor vs. Samoa Joe
Samoa Joe wins by pinfall with a lateral press.

Roman Reigns vs. Seth Rollins
Roman Reigns wins by pinfall with the spear.

Samoa Joe and Roman Reigns won their matches on Raw, and then Samoa Joe also won on PPV. Therefore Reverse Momentum Theory failed to hold in determining the winner of the Fatal 5-Way match.

It can be argued that Reverse Momentum Theory successfully predicted that Reigns would not win the match, but multi-man matches like this will always cause headaches if I consider all possible cases like that. Therefore, I am only concerned with the winner of the match.

Regardless of whether or not you count 205 Live, Reverse Momentum Theory held up for 4 out of 7 matches at Extreme Rules 2017.

The goal is to keep tracking this data for all future WWE PPV events, so keep it right here on Cageside Seats to see how often WWE books according to Reverse Momentum Theory.