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How predictable was WWE Royal Rumble 2016?

WWE.com

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for six of the matches that took place at Royal Rumble 2016. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Royal Rumble 2016 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the winner(s) of each match. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and no prediction data was available for the empty spaces.

Geno Sean Cain Bill Kyle Jason Polls
Swagger, Henry 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
Ambrose 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
New Day 0 1 0 0 1 1 1
Kalisto 0 0 0 1 0 1 1
Charlotte 1 1 1 1 1 1
Triple H 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

Here are the predictability ratings for each match. The entry for Ambrose's match can be interpreted as follows: "6 out of 7 predictions for Ambrose's match were correct, which is a success rate of 85.7%."

  • 100.0%: Charlotte vs Becky Lynch (6-0)
  • 85.7%: Tag Team Fatal 4-Way (6-1)
  • 85.7%: Dean Ambrose vs Kevin Owens (6-1)
  • 57.1%: New Day vs Usos (4-3)
  • 42.9%: Kalisto vs Alberto Del Rio (3-4)
  • 28.6%: Royal Rumble Match (2-5)

These numbers add up to 27 correct predictions and 14 incorrect predictions, which means the predictability rating for Royal Rumble 2016 is 65.9%. This is extremely close to the overall 2015 predictability rating of 63.4%.

Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:

  • 80.0%: CSS Match Preview Polls (4-1)
  • 66.7%: Sean Rueter (4-2)
  • 66.7%: Cain A. Knight (4-2)
  • 66.7%: Bill Hanstock (4-2)
  • 66.7%: Kyle Decker (4-2)
  • 66.7%: Jason Martin (4-2)
  • 50.0%: Geno Mrosko (3-3)

The staff of Cageside Seats had a pretty good night with predicting the winners at Royal Rumble 2016. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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