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How predictable was WWE Payback 2016?

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WWE.com

Every time a WWE Pay-Per-View (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card.  This data can be used to come up with a simple predictability rating for any event.

Five different staff members predicted the winners for seven of the matches that took place at Payback 2016, including the pre-show bouts.  Some of the Cageside Seats Payback 2016 match preview articles also offered a poll allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The predictions for Enzo Amore's match were omitted from this investigation due to the abrupt termination of his match.  On the one hand his injury certainly added a great deal of unpredictability to Payback 2016, but on the other hand it did not shed any light on how WWE was going to book the finish of that match.

In the vast majority of cases I did not consider anything the staff member wrote other than which wrestler was listed as the winner of the match.  So it didn't matter to me if someone predicted that Finn Balor would interfere in the main event.  Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match.   The number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and no prediction data was available for the empty spaces.

Geno Sean Cain Bill Kyle Polls
Dolph Ziggler 0 1 0 0 0
Kalisto 1 0 0 1 1
Kevin Owens 1 0 1 1 0 1
The Miz 0 1 1 0 1 0
Dean Ambrose 0 0 1 0 1 1
Charlotte 1 1 1 1 1
Roman Reigns 1 1 1 1 1

Here are the predictability ratings for each match.  The first line of the list can be interpreted as follows: "5 out of 5 predictions for Charlotte's match were correct, which is a success rate of 100.0%."

  • 100.0%: Charlotte vs Natalya (5-0)
  • 100.0%: Roman Reigns vs AJ Styles (5-0)
  • 66.7%: Sami Zayn vs Kevin Owens (4-2)
  • 60.0%: Kalisto vs Ryback (3-2)
  • 50.0%: The Miz vs Cesaro (3-3)
  • 50.0%: Dean Ambrose vs Chris Jericho (3-3)
  • 20.0%: Dolph Ziggler vs Baron Corbin (1-4)

These numbers add up to 24 correct predictions and 14 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for Payback 2016 is 63.2%.  This result falls right in line with the overall 2015 predictability rating of 63.4% for all 13 WWE Pay-Per-View events, and is a big improvement over the predictability rating for WrestleMania 32.

Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:

  • 71.4%: Kyle Decker (5-2)
  • 71.4%: Cain A. Knight (5-2)
  • 66.7%: CSS Match Preview Polls (2-1)
  • 57.1%: Bill Hanstock (4-3)
  • 57.1%: Sean Rueter (4-3)
  • 57.1%: Geno Mrosko (4-3)

It's worth noting that Sean Rueter is the only one who correctly predicted Ziggler's victory.

In addition to that, Bill Hanstock's explanation for his prediction stated that Miz was going to win, but then he listed the winner as Cesaro.  It's possible this was a typo and maybe Bill meant to list Miz as the winner.

The staff of Cageside Seats had a decent performance in predicting the winners at Payback 2016.  How did you fare, Cagesiders?