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How predictable was WWE Extreme Rules 2016?

WWE.com

Every time a WWE Pay-Per-View (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Five different staff members predicted the winners for eight of the matches that took place at Extreme Rules 2016, including the pre-show bouts. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Extreme Rules 2016 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the winner(s) of each match.  Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction and the number "0" is an incorrect prediction.

Geno Sean Cain Bill Kyle Polls
Corbin 1 1 1 1 1 1
The Club 1 1 1 1 1 1
Rusev 1 1 0 1 1 1
New Day 0 1 1 0 1 1
The Miz 1 1 1 0 1 0
Ambrose 1 0 1 1 0 1
Charlotte 1 1 1 1 1 1
Reigns 1 1 1 1 1 1

Here are the predictability ratings for each match. The entry for Kalisto's match can be interpreted as follows: "5 out of 6 predictions for Kalisto's match were correct, which is a success rate of 83.3%."

  • 100%: Baron Corbin vs Dolph Ziggler (6-0)
  • 100%: The Usos vs The Club (6-0)
  • 100%: Charlotte vs Natalya (6-0)
  • 100%: Roman Reigns vs AJ Styles (6-0)
  • 83.3%: Kalisto vs Rusev (5-1)
  • 66.7%: New Day vs The Vaudevillains (4-2)
  • 66.7%: Miz vs Cesaro vs Owens vs Zayn (4-2)
  • 66.7%: Dean Ambrose vs Chris Jericho (4-2)

These numbers add up to 41 correct predictions and 7 incorrect predictions, which means the predictability rating for Extreme Rules 2016 is 85.4%. This is much higher than the overall 2015 predictability rating of 63.4%, and falls just short of the 88.1% predictability rating for Survivor Series 2015.

Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:

  • 87.5%: Geno Mrosko (7-1)
  • 87.5%: Sean Rueter (7-1)
  • 87.5%: Cain A. Knight (7-1)
  • 87.5%: Kyle Decker (7-1)
  • 87.5%: CSS Match Preview Polls (7-1)
  • 75.0%: Bill Hanstock (6-2)

The staff of Cageside Seats provided extremely accurate predictions for Extreme Rules 2016. How did you fare, Cagesiders?