AEW Double or Nothing 2023 PPV card: Who is winning a title?

AEW’s Double or Nothing PPV is coming into shape for Sunday, May 28. The current lineup includes:

• AEW World Championship: MJF (c) vs. Jungle Boy vs. Darby Allin vs. Sammy Guevara
• AEW Women’s World Championship: Jamie Hayter (c) vs. Toni Storm
• AEW World Tag Team Championship: FTR (c) vs. Jay Lethal & Jeff Jarrett with Mark Briscoe as special guest referee
• TNT Championship: Wardlow (c) vs. Christian Cage in a ladder match
• TBS Championship: Jade Cargill (c) vs. Taya Valkyrie
• AEW International Championship: Orange Cassidy (c) to defend in a Blackjack Battle Royale
• Anarchy in the Arena: Kenny Omega, Young Bucks, & Hangman Page vs. Bryan Danielson, Jon Moxley, Claudio Castagnoli, & Wheeler Yuta
• Chris Jericho vs. Adam Cole in an unsanctioned match
• Matt Hardy, Jeff Hardy, & Isiah Kassidy vs. Ethan Page & the Gunns (If Hardy Party wins, then Matt controls Page’s contract)

The nine-bout lineup is stacked as is. If AEW wants to add a few more hands, likely options would be the House of Black defending the AEW World Trios Championship against the Acclaimed & Billy Gunn, Swerve Strickland versus Keith Lee, and Ricky Starks versus “Switchblade” Jay White in a rematch. Also keep an eye out for Hook replacing Kassidy after that brutal attack to Brother Zay on Rampage.

When analyzing the title bouts, I’m left with the notion that no new champions could emerge on this card. (That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but some paying customers may not find it satisfying.) Very few rubes believe MJF is dropping the Triple B here. A new world champion would be arguably the biggest shocker in AEW history. I think Jamie Hayter is a safe bet to retain against Toni Storm, unless Hayter is hiding a real injury. It seems that the money match would be Hayter versus Saraya with the two Brits battling at All In in Wembley Stadium on August 27.

FTR, Wardlow, and the House of Black are too fresh into their title reigns to lose at Double or Nothing. FTR have not had one televised defense since winning the belts off the Gunns. The same goes for Wardlow after conquering Will Hobbs. Plus, Wardlow’s new relationship with Arn Anderson would be a bust if Christian climbs the ladder to snatch the TNT title. The House of Black is riding on three successful defenses, but they have the new Open House gimmick that has legs to be interesting. It would be too soon to close shop on the Open House now.

That leaves Orange Cassidy and Jade Cargill. Cassidy has the toughest situation to retain being one of twenty-one competitors in the Blackjack Battle Royale. OC also has lingering injuries. I’m not anticipating Cassidy losing here, because they’ve put too much effort into the story of wear and tear on his body to pass the torch like that without being pinned. Jade surpassed 500 days as TBS champion. On one hand, all streaks come to an end eventually. On the other hand, Jade is presented as a dominant champ for a reason. Taya may not be the chosen one to dethrone her. (Peaking at when Kris Statlander could return.)

Could there really be zero title changes at Double or Nothing? The stats say otherwise.

The unofficial simple math shows 15 title changes out of 61 matches in AEW PPV history. That is roughly 25%. Those numbers do not include crowning inaugural, vacant, or interim champions, which has happened 6 times. It also does not include the even split of a ‘winner take all’ bout with ROH and IWGP tag titles. One set of belts changed hands in that match, and the other set did not.

With 6 title bouts on the Double or Nothing card, the odds say that there will be at least one new champion. Even though the cases look strong for Hayter, FTR, and Wardlow to retain, never count out the craftiness of the Outcasts, Jarrett, and Christian. It would be totally believable to see them create some bullshit way to win. That takes us back to Cassidy and Cargill as the likely losers. It is going to be a tough call.

When in doubt, give all the gold to Jeff Jarrett.

Who do you think will be losing their championship at Double or Nothing?