AEW Full Gear 2023 predictions

All Elite Wrestling is back on Nov. 18 with their annual fall PPV — Full Gear! This year’s edition, the fifth, comes our way from greater Los Angeles at 8pm ET.

Including a free streaming pre-show which starts ninety minutes earlier, the event will feature seven title matches, the announcement of Tony Khan’s newest free agent signing, one of Sting’s last matches, and more.

It’s a lot to process. But our motley crew is back to make predictions about the matches coming our way Saturday night from the Kia Forum, and muse about all things AEW along the way.

Let's get to it.

AEW FULL GEAR PREDICTIONS

MJF (c) vs. Jay White for the AEW World championship

Sean Rueter: As someone who was not a big Switchblade fan during his New Japan days, I do want to give White and his whole crew props for proving to be entertaining foils throughout this program. But he’s not the guy to actually take the belt off Max at this point. Pick: Maxwell Jacob Friedman

Geno Mrosko: There’s just no reason to take the title off MJF here. Pick: MJF

Claire Elizabeth: Jay White still kind of comes off like he stole his big brother’s jacket, but he’s stepped up to the plate and this has been a good solid feud. Don’t fool yourself, though, MJF is leaving with the title. Pick: Maxwell Jacob Friedman

Cain A. Knight: AEW has been saving Jay White’s first pin or submission loss for an important match, and this is it right here. Pick: MJF

Manolo H. Pizzazz: After the aggression shown on Friday night, MJF is going to kick the shit out of White. And he may do it literally with the kangaroo kick. Samoa Joe will be there as an insurance policy to keep it fair. Pick: MJF

Marcus Benjamin: I expect something fun between these two that hopefully elevates Jay. But MJF doesn’t lose the title here with bigger fish on the horizon. Pick: MJF

Kyle Decker: The big mystery is “Who is the man in the Devil mask?” It’s not “Who is going to win this match.” That’s more straightforward. Pick: MJF

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Orange Cassidy (c) vs. Jon Moxley for the AEW International title

Sean Rueter: Let’s string this out into a longer arc for OC, if only because I want to see his version of Rocky training montage. Pick: Jon Moxley

Geno Mrosko: Hard to see Cassidy beating Moxley in any way, shape, or form. Pick: Jon Moxley

Claire Elizabeth: I love a good hot potato and I love Jon Moxley but I love Orange Cassidy as International Champion even more. Let’s keep riding this horse, baby! Pick: Orange Cassidy

Cain A. Knight: Jon Moxley is the one guy who Orange Cassidy just can’t beat. Pick: Jon Moxley

Manolo H. Pizzazz: The story points to Cassidy getting his win back in a feel-good moment, however, I struggle to see Cassidy developing a new trick to beat Moxley a couple of days after the superman punch fell on a deaf chin. Cassidy will need more time than that to perfect a solution. Pick: Jon Moxley

Marcus Benjamin: I like this rivalry. These two contrast so much. They’re like plant-based food and pork. Mox gets his title back and possibly bleeds a bit. Pick: Jon Moxley

Kyle Decker: This is odd scenario for AEW. Clearly, Mox was supposed to hold on to that title for awhile and OC would likely get his win back down the road, maybe when the International Championship was behind both men. But then Mox got hurt in his match with Fenix but Fenix was too banged up to hold it longer so they went back to OC. Now they either have to choose between OC getting his win back and Mox getting his title back. I don’t think OC can take another clean L, but maybe something like a Hook heel turn to cost him? Pick: Jon Moxley

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Hikaru Shida (c) vs. Toni Storm for the AEW Women’s World championship

Sean Rueter: Was convinced the Timeless One would win here until Mariah May showed up. An All About Eve storyline doesn’t need a title. Pick: Hikaru Shida

Geno Mrosko: That gimmick deserves it. Pick: Toni Storm

Claire Elizabeth: I got excited about the Timeless Toni gimmick at first because I live my life in many ways like it’s 1959 and with my tits out, but then she started trending it earlier with the silent movies and everything and for that reason alone I want to see Shida pick up the win. Pick: Hikaru Shida

Cain A. Knight: Tony Khan is a really big fan of Toni Storm’s new gimmick. Pick: Toni Storm

Manolo H. Pizzazz: There might be a more interesting story to tell for Storm without the championship. And if I’m going to choose based on film genres, give me samurai flicks over silent mimes. Pick: Hikaru Shida

Marcus Benjamin: It’s time. Toni is doing incredible work and must-see television. Pick: Toni Storm

Kyle Decker: Unlike Sean, I think the addition of Mariah May ensures Toni wins and not takes it in the other direction. Pick: Toni Storm

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Sting, Adam Copeland & Darby Allin vs. Christian Cage, Luchasaurus & Nick Wayne

Sean Rueter: This program hasn’t featured AEW’s Father Figure as much as it should have. What, is one of the best to ever do it retiring or something? He is? Oh, then he definitely ain’t losing. Pick: Sting, Adam Copeland & Darby Allin

Geno Mrosko: You can’t beat Sting anymore. Pick: Sting & Adam Copeland & Darby Allin

Claire Elizabeth: Not today, Christian. Not today. Pick: Adam Copeland, Darby Allin, & Sting

Cain A. Knight: I think Sting loses one match before he retires, but Nick Wayne and Luchasaurus are right there begging to be pinned by the super babyface squad. Pick: Sting, Adam Copeland & Darby Allin

Manolo H. Pizzazz: It’s Sting! Pick: Sting, Adam Copeland, & Darby Allin

Marcus Benjamin: This is the match I’m all about. I’m curious how much work Sting does with one year left on his dance card, and how Christian and Adam work together. We’re building to a one-on-one match between those two, right? Therefore, the good guys get the win but something happens afterward. Pick: Sting, Adam Copeland, and Darby Allin

Kyle Decker: Sting hasn’t lost yet in AEW and Christian’s team is surely weaker. Take that pin, Nick Wayne. (Though it’s also possible Edge pins Christian.) Pick: Sting, Adam Copeland, and Darby Allin

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Hangman Page vs. Swerve Strickland in a Texas Death Match

Sean Rueter: Swerve will claim victory regardless (he’s already been talking about how Page has changed as a result of his actions), but he actually won at WrestleDream and then menaced the man’s child. Pro wrestling law is pretty clear on this one. Pick: Hangman Page

Geno Mrosko: Considering the promos and the way this was built up, it would be a truly shocking moment if Hangman didn’t win. Pick: Hangman Page

Claire Elizabeth: Hangman’s whole story at the start of this feud was about how he’s become listless and unmotivated and honestly what I want here is to deviate from the expected “well Strickland went into his house!” pro wrestling moral arc to allow for Swerve to clean his clock and then Page actually finds that killer instinct and we escalate to a third match with an even harder stipulation— an ultraviolent modern-style deathmatch, perhaps? Pick: Shane “Swerve” Strickland

Cain A. Knight: The home invader is typically the one who loses when the actual wrestling match comes around. Pick: Hangman Page

Manolo H. Pizzazz: Since there is no threat of disqualification, the cowboy can ride with the fury of one thousand suns. Pick: Hangman Page

Marcus Benjamin: I’m picking against the grain here just because. Pick: Swerve Strickland

Kyle Decker: The man broke into Swerve’s House and hung around his child. He’s gotta lose here. Pick: Hangman Page

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Big Bill & Ricky Starks (c) vs. FTR vs. LFI vs. House of Black in a ladder match for the AEW World Tag Team titles

Sean Rueter: Because while I don’t know how many people will rejoice when it happens again, Bucks/Revival is still probably the biggest tag match AEW has in its arsenal. Pick: FTR

Geno Mrosko: How about a surprise? Pick: House of Black

Claire Elizabeth: I’ve seen the math, I’m with Deck here. Pick: “Big” Bill Morrissey & “Absolute” Ricky Starks

Cain A. Knight: This seems like a match where the primary purpose is to get everyone on the card rather than book a title change. Pick: Big Bill & Ricky Starks

Manolo H. Pizzazz: As Starks said, Bill is the tallest. Checkmate. Pick: Big Bill & Ricky Starks

Marcus Benjamin: Keep every belt Ricky has on Ricky. Pick: Big Bill & Ricky Starks

Kyle Decker: I always say the more participants, the more likely the champs retain. Pick: Big Bill & Ricky Starks

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Kris Statlander (c) vs. Julia Hart vs. Skye Blue for the TBS championship

Sean Rueter: Methinks Skye tricked Stat and many of us, and the reveal that she’s now Dark Blue will lead to a title change. Pick: Julia Hart

Geno Mrosko: Have been a fan of what Skye Blue is doing lately but it’s not time just yet. Pick: Kris Statlander

Claire Elizabeth: I actually haven’t picked too many retentions thus far so I’m going with it here just to mix it up, and because they do like their nice long dominant TBS Championship reigns. Pick: Kris Statlander

Cain A. Knight: Statlander should drop the title to a big star, considering she has beaten Jade Cargill and Britt Baker during this reign. Julia Hart and Skye Blue don’t quite measure up to that level, at least not yet. Pick: Kris Statlander

Manolo H. Pizzazz: Blue steel beats black mist and blue mist. Pick: Kris Statlander

Marcus Benjamin: I want Julia to win. After rooting for this girl for so long, it’s time I get my day in the sun. Or night in the moon. Pick: Julia Hart

Kyle Decker: I’m not going to pick against Statlander just yet. Pick: Kris Statlander

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Golden Jets (Kenny Omega & Chris Jericho) vs. The Young Bucks for an AEW Tag title shot; Golden Jets must disband if they lose

Sean Rueter: If Kenny needs a tag partner going forward, Tony Khan just signed a guy. The Jets got their win over The Callis Family, now they’ll propel the once again Heel Bucks toward the titles. Pick: The Young Bucks

Geno Mrosko: You know how this goes. Pick: The Young Bucks

Claire Elizabeth: Kenny Omega is right— he may not be the absolute better tag team wrestler, but he absolutely can beat the Young Bucks with any partner on his level, and he’s gonna do it again, and then they’ll probably put Big Bill and Rick over and drift apart naturally. Pick: Golden Jets (Chris Jericho & Kenny Omega)

Cain A. Knight: I think the very brief partnership of Kenny Omega and Chris Jericho served its purpose, and now it’s time to move on. Pick: The Young Bucks

Manolo H. Pizzazz: I’m really tempted to select the Golden Jets, however, the Jacksons’ new attitude showed they have no regard for the rules. Cheaters always prosper in professional wrestling. Pick: Young Bucks

Marcus Benjamin: I rarely like pseudo tag teams defeating legitimate tag teams. I’m not going against that here even if part of me wants to. Pick: The Young Bucks

Kyle Decker: With a Bucks heel turn coming, it will likely cost the Golden Jets, who will have to disband before Jericho can overwork to get that team name over. Pick: The Young Bucks

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MJF (c) & Samoa Joe vs. The Gunns for the Ring of Honor Tag Team championship

Sean Rueter: There’s no way Max would break his promise to his brochacho, even if it means making a deal with the devil Samoa Joe. Pick: MJF

Geno Mrosko: Joe is gonna... Pick: MJF & Samoa Joe

Claire Elizabeth: Max is gonna get his bargain’s worth, alright. Pick: Samoa Joe & Maxwell Jacob Friedman

Cain A. Knight: MJF could’ve beat these guys all by himself. Pick: MJF

Manolo H. Pizzazz: I’m pretty sure Joe could beat the Gunns by himself. Pick: MJF & Samoa Joe

Marcus Benjamin: This isn’t really a fair fight. Especially now with Joe on MJF’s side. Pick: MJF & Samoa Joe

Kyle Decker: One of the Gunns is gonna be dumb enough to try to jump from the top turnbuckle at Joe. No one ever learns. Pick: MJF & Samoa Joe

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Eddie Kingston (c) vs. Jay Lethal for the ROH World title

Sean Rueter: Just hope this means they have something main card-worthy planned for the Mad King at Final Battle. Pick: Eddie Kingston

Geno Mrosko: On the pre-show? No way they do a change, right? Pick: Eddie Kingston

Claire Elizabeth: Jay Lethal should not be anywhere near the ROH World Championship in the year of our sweet dark lady Satan 2023. Pick: Eddie Kingston

Cain A. Knight: If Tony Khan wants to get more people to care about ROH, booking a ROH world title match on a PPV pre-show is definitely not the way to do it. Pick: Eddie Kingston

Manolo H. Pizzazz: This is a means to an end to crown the next ROH world champion, Satnam Singh. Pick: Eddie Kingston

Marcus Benjamin: I mean. Come on. Who else would I pick here?! Pick: Eddie Kingston

Kyle Decker: I don’t really follow ROH outside what they do on Dynamite so I have no reason to pick against Eddie. Pick: Eddie Kingston

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Claudio Castagnoli vs. Buddy Matthews

Sean Rueter: Maybe it’s because he’s been one of my favorite people to watch pro wrestle for going on two decades now, but Big Swiss feels win/loss-proof to me. HIs opponent, on the other hand, could use something to help him stand out as more than House of Black’s good hand. Pick: Buddy Matthews

Geno Mrosko: Sure. Pick: Claudio Castagnoli

Claire Elizabeth: I’m watching my first indie show in four years entirely because Chris Hero is back, so I can hardly pick against his Kings of Wrestling tag partner. Pick: Claudio Castagnoli

Cain A. Knight: Can’t pick against Claudio here. Pick: Claudio Castagnoli

Manolo H. Pizzazz: This would be a little bit of an upset to keep us guessing all night. Pick: Buddy Matthews

Marcus Benjamin: These two might tear down the house and set the tone for the rest of the night. Pick: Claudio Castagnoli

Kyle Decker: The one who’s been shown to be a singles threat. Pick: Claudio Castagnoli

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That's who we've got. Who are you taking, Cagesiders?