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How predictable was WWE SummerSlam 2016?

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WWE.com

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at SummerSlam 2016. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for SummerSlam 2016 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the winner(s) of each match. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and no prediction data was available for the empty spaces.

Geno Sean Cain Kyle Rev Jason Polls
Sheamus 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
JeriKO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Charlotte 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
The Miz 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
Styles 1 1 1 0 1 1 1
The Club 1 0 1 1 1 0 1
Ambrose 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Team Natalya 0 0 0 0 1
Balor 1 1 1 0 1 1 1
Lesnar 1 0 1 1 0 1 0

Here are the predictability ratings for each match. The entry for Lesnar's match can be interpreted as follows: "4 out of 7 predictions for Lesnar's match were correct, which is a success rate of 57.1%."

  • 100.0%: Dean Ambrose vs Dolph Ziggler (7-0)
  • 85.7%: The Miz vs Apollo Crews (6-1)
  • 85.7%: John Cena vs AJ Styles (6-1)
  • 85.7%: Finn Balor vs Seth Rollins (6-1)
  • 71.4%: Cesaro vs Sheamus (5-2)
  • 71.4%: New Day vs The Club (5-2)
  • 57.1%: Brock Lesnar vs Randy Orton (4-3)
  • 20.0%: Becky, Naomi, Carmella vs Natalya, Alexa, Nikki (1-4)
  • 0.0%: Enzo and Cass vs Jericho and Owens (0-7)
  • 0.0%: Sasha Banks vs Charlotte (0-7)

These numbers add up to 40 correct predictions and 28 incorrect predictions, which means the predictability rating for SummerSlam 2016 is 58.8%. This drops the overall predictability rating for 2016 WWE PPVs from 62.0% down to 61.4% (255 correct versus 160 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%.

Predictions for Rusev's match with Reigns were completely discarded because the match never happened.

Geno's prediction for Becky's match was omitted due to its ambiguity.

Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:

  • 70.0%: Cain A. Knight (7-3)
  • 66.7%: Geno Mrosko (6-3)
  • 60.0%: ReverendKain (6-4)
  • 60.0%: Jason Martin (6-4)
  • 55.6%: CSS Match Preview Polls (5-4)
  • 50.0%: Sean Rueter (5-5)
  • 50.0%: Kyle Decker (5-5)

The staff of Cageside Seats had an average night with predicting the winners at SummerSlam 2016. How did you fare, Cagesiders?