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How predictable was WWE Battleground 2016?

WWE.com

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Battleground 2016. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Battleground 2016 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the winner(s) of each match. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and no prediction data was available for the empty spaces.

Geno Sean Cain Kyle Rev Jason Polls
Breezango 1
Sasha, Bayley 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
Wyatts 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
Rusev 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Zayn 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
Natalya 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Double DQ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cena, Enzo, Cass 0 1 1 0 1 1 1
Ambrose 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Here are the predictability ratings for each match. The entry for Sasha's match can be interpreted as follows: "5 out of 7 predictions for Sasha's match were correct, which is a success rate of 71.4%."

  • 100.0%: Rusev vs Zack Ryder (7-0)
  • 100.0%: Breezango vs The Usos (1-0)
  • 71.4%: Sasha and Bayley vs Charlotte and Dana (5-2)
  • 71.4%: New Day vs Wyatt Family (5-2)
  • 71.4%: Cena, Enzo, Cass vs Styles, Gallows, Anderson (5-2)
  • 42.9%: Sami Zayn vs Kevin Owens (3-4)
  • 28.6%: Becky Lynch vs Natalya (2-5)
  • 14.3%: Ambrose vs Reigns vs Rollins (1-6)
  • 0.0%: Miz vs Darren Young (0-6)

These numbers add up to 29 correct predictions and 27 incorrect predictions, which means the predictability rating for Battleground 2016 is 51.8%. This drops the overall predictability rating for 2016 WWE PPVs from 63.9% down to 62.0% (215 correct versus 132 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%.

The outcome of Darren Young's match was ridiculously hard to predict, because most staff members rarely every guess that a match will have no winner. I discarded the Match Preview Poll results for this match because the the listed poll options did not allow for the possibility of no winner.

The Breezango match was added to the card too late for the staff members to offer any predictions, but the Cagesiders who participated in the Match Preview Poll nailed it.

Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:

  • 75.0%: ReverendKain (6-2)
  • 62.5%: Jason Martin (5-3)
  • 62.5%: CSS Match Preview Polls (5-3)
  • 50.0%: Geno Mrosko (4-4)
  • 37.5%: Sean Rueter (3-5)
  • 37.5%: Cain A. Knight (3-5)
  • 37.5% Kyle Decker (3-5)

The staff of Cageside Seats had a mediocre night with predicting the winners at Battleground 2016. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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