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How predictable was WWE Fastlane 2016?

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Six different staff members predicted the winners for seven of the matches that took place at Fastlane 2016. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Fastlane 2016 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the winner(s) of each match. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and no prediction data was available for the empty spaces.

Geno Sean Keith Cain Bill Kyle Polls
Kalisto 1 1 1 1 1 1
Becky, Sasha 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Owens 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Big Show, Kane, Ryback 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Charlotte 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
Styles 1 1 1 1 1 1
Reigns 1 1 1 1 1 1

I'm not sure if this will ever happen again - every single staff member had the same exact set of predictions for Fastlane 2016, with only the match preview poll result for Charlotte's match differing from the norm.

Here are the predictability ratings for each match. The entry for Sasha's match can be interpreted as follows: "7 out of 7 predictions for Sasha's match were correct, which is a success rate of 100.0%."

  • 100.0%: Becky and Sasha vs Naomi and Tamina (7-0)
  • 100.0%: Kevin Owens vs Dolph Ziggler (7-0)
  • 100.0%: Kalisto vs Alberto Del Rio (6-0)
  • 100.0%: AJ Styles vs Chris Jericho (6-0)
  • 100.0%: Lesnar vs Reigns vs Ambrose (6-0)
  • 85.7%: Charlotte vs Brie Bella (6-1)
  • 0.0%: Wyatt Family vs Big Show, Kane, Ryback (0-7)

These numbers add up to 38 correct predictions and 8 incorrect predictions, which means the predictability rating for Fastlane 2016 is 82.6%. This is the third highest predictability rating that I have calculated since the start of 2015, trailing only Survivor Series 2015 and Extreme Rules 2016.

Every match but one scored higher than the overall 82.6% predictability rating, which gives an idea of how much the 0.0% predictability rating of the Wyatt Family match brought down the overall score.

Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:

  • 85.7%: Geno Mrosko (6-1)
  • 85.7%: Sean Rueter (6-1)
  • 85.7%: Keith Harris (6-1)
  • 85.7%: Cain A. Knight (6-1)
  • 85.7%: Bill Hanstock (6-1)
  • 85.7%: Kyle Decker (6-1)
  • 50.0%: CSS Match Preview Polls (2-2)

The staff of Cageside Seats had an excellent night with predicting the winners at Fastlane 2016. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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