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Every time a WWE Pay-Per-View (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to come up with a simple predictability rating for any event.
Six different staff members predicted the winners for eleven of the matches that took place at WrestleMania 32, including the pre-show bouts. The Cageside Seats WrestleMania 32 match preview articles also offered a poll allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions for each match.
In the vast majority of cases I did not consider anything the staff member wrote other than which wrestler was listed as the winner of the match. So it didn't matter to me if someone predicted that Roman Reigns would turn heel. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory. Answers such as "who cares?" were omitted from the analysis rather than being judged as incorrect.
The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and no prediction data was available for the empty spaces.
| Geno |
Sean |
Cain |
Polls |
Tonya |
Bill |
Kyle |
|
| Kalisto |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Total Divas |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| The Usos |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
| Zack Ryder |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Chris Jericho |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| The Lads |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Brock Lesnar |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
| Charlotte |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Undertaker |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Baron Corbin |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Roman Reigns |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Here are the predictability ratings for each match. The first line of the list can be interpreted as follows: "5 out of 6 predictions for Triple H's match were correct, which is a success rate of 83.3%."
- 83.3%: Triple H vs Roman Reigns (5-1)
- 71.4%: Total Divas vs BAD and Blonde (5-2)
- 66.7%: Undertaker vs Shane McMahon (4-2)
- 66.7%: Usos vs Dudley Boyz (4-2)
- 50.0%: Brock Lesnar vs Dean Ambrose (3-3)
- 42.9%: Kalisto vs Ryback (3-4)
- 33.3%: Charlotte vs Sasha vs Becky (2-4)
- 28.6%: Chris Jericho vs AJ Styles (2-5)
- 16.7%: Andre the Giant Battle Royal (1-5)
- 14.3%: New Day vs League of Nations (1-6)
- 0.0%: IC Ladder Match (0-6)
The CSS Match Preview Poll for the Battle Royal had more votes for "Other" than any single wrestler who was listed, and so I counted that as a correct prediction (because Baron Corbin was not listed). That was the only correct prediction for the Battle Royal.
These numbers add up to 30 correct predictions and 40 incorrect predictions, which means the overall predictability rating for WrestleMania 32 is 42.9%. It's worth noting that only one PPV in 2015 finished with a predictability rating under 50.0%.
These results are a reminder of how tricky it can be to accurately predict the outcome of multi-man matches. If the Battle Royal and the IC Ladder Match were magically wiped away, the predictability rating for WrestleMania 32 would increase from 42.9% (30-40) to 50.0% (29-29).
Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:
- 63.6%: Sean Rueter (7-4)
- 54.5%: Cain A. Knight (6-5)
- 40.0%: CSS Match Preview Polls (4-6)
- 40.0%: Tonya Rodgers (2-3)
- 36.4%: Geno Mrosko (4-7)
- 36.4%: Bill Hanstock (4-7)
- 27.3%: Kyle Decker (3-8)
The staff of Cageside Seats had a rough night with predicting the winners at WrestleMania 32. How did you fare, Cagesiders?