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How predictable was WWE Survivor Series 2016?

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Five different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at Survivor Series 2016 (Sun., Nov. 20, 2016) from the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for Survivor Series 2016 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the winner(s) of each match. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction, the number "0" is an incorrect prediction, and no prediction data was available for the empty spaces.

Geno Sean Cain Kyle Rev Polls
Raw women 1 1 0 1 1 0
The Miz 0 1 1 1 0 0
Raw tag teams 0 0 1 0 0 0
Brian Kendrick 0 1 0 1 0 0
SD men 1 0 0 1 1
Goldberg 0 0 0 0 0 1

I normally double check to make sure that all match preview polls are set to close at the beginning of the PPV, but I must have slipped up this time because the poll for the Men's elimination match is still open for voting. As a result I decided to discard the results of that poll from this analysis, because it is possible that the results could have been affected by votes from the past 10 days that were cast with actual knowledge of which team won the match.

Here are the predictability ratings for each match. The entry for Kendrick’s match can be interpreted as follows: "2 out of 6 predictions for Kendrick's match were correct, which is a success rate of 33.3%."

  • 66.7%: Raw women vs SmackDown women (4-2)
  • 60.0%: Raw men vs SmackDown men (3-2)
  • 50.0%: The Miz vs Sami Zayn (3-3)
  • 33.3%: Brian Kendrick vs Kalisto (2-4)
  • 16.7%: Raw tag teams vs SmackDown tag teams (1-5)
  • 16.7%: Goldberg vs Brock Lesnar (1-5)

These numbers add up to 14 correct predictions and 21 incorrect predictions, which means the predictability rating for Survivor Series 2016 is 40.0%. This lowers the overall predictability rating for 2016 WWE PPVs from 61.5% down to 60.6% (373 correct versus 243 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%.

Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:

  • 66.7%: Kyle Decker (4-2)
  • 50.0%: Sean Rueter (3-3)
  • 33.3%: Cain A. Knight (2-4)
  • 33.3%: Geno Mrosko (2-4)
  • 33.3%: ReverendKain (2-4)
  • 20.0%: CSS Match Preview Polls (1-4)

The staff of Cageside Seats struggled with predicting the winners at Survivor Series 2016. How did you fare, Cagesiders?