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How predictable was WWE No Mercy 2016?

Every time a WWE pay-per-view (PPV) event is on the horizon, the staff of Cageside Seats offers predictions for all of the advertised matches on the card. This data can be used to calculate a simple predictability rating for any event.

Five different staff members predicted the winners for the matches that took place at No Mercy 2016 (Sun., Oct. 9, 2016) at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. Staff members received credit for a correct prediction of the winner of any match, even if they were wrong about the context of that victory.

The Cageside Seats match preview articles for No Mercy 2016 also offered polls allowing Cagesiders the chance to weigh in with their predictions.

The following chart contains the prediction results for every match. The leftmost column includes the winner(s) of each match. Below each staff member's name, the number "1" is a correct prediction and the number "0" is an incorrect prediction.

Geno Sean Cain Kyle Rev Polls
AJ Styles 1 1 1 1 1 1
Nikki Bella 0 1 1 1 1 1
Slater, Rhyno 0 1 0 0 0 0
Baron Corbin 1 1 1 1 0 1
Dolph Ziggler 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bray Wyatt 1 1 0 0 0 0

Here are the predictability ratings for each match. The entry for Orton’s match can be interpreted as follows: "2 out of 6 predictions for Orton's match were correct, which is a success rate of 33.3%."

  • 100.0%: Styles vs Ambrose vs Cena (6-0)
  • 83.3%: Nikki Bella vs Carmella (5-1)
  • 83.3%: Jack Swagger vs Baron Corbin (5-1)
  • 33.3%: Randy Orton vs Bray Wyatt (2-4)
  • 16.7%: Rhyno and Slater vs The Usos (1-5)
  • 0.0%: The Miz vs Dolph Ziggler (0-6)

Alexa's match with Naomi did not make the cut because it was not one of the advertised matches for the card, and therefore no prediction data was available.

These numbers add up to 19 correct predictions and 17 incorrect predictions, which means the predictability rating for No Mercy 2016 is 52.8%. This lowers the overall predictability rating for 2016 WWE PPVs from 62.1% up to 61.5% (329 correct versus 206 incorrect predictions). For comparison's sake, the overall predictability rating for 2015 WWE PPVs was 63.4%.

Here are the individual results for each staff member who offered predictions:

  • 83.3%: Sean Rueter (5-1)
  • 50.0%: Kyle Decker (3-3)
  • 50.0%: Cain A. Knight (3-3)
  • 50.0%: Geno Mrosko (3-3)
  • 50.0%: CSS Match Preview Polls (3-3)
  • 33.3%: ReverendKain (2-4)

The staff of Cageside Seats had a shaky night with predicting the winners at No Mercy 2016. How did you fare, Cagesiders?

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