Negative Heat caused UFC 117 Trend/Buy Difference?

Recent reports indicating UFC 117 had 'only' done 600k estimated buys falling short of the 1 Million suggested by pre-fight trends have already caused the MMA Blogosphere to take another look at Chael Sonnen and scrutinise how much of a promotional draw he actually is. Which is understandable considering the coverage in the run up to UFC 117 focused on Sonnen, and not the hypothetical  number #1 Fighter in the World. But it's also unfair to just look at Sonnen in light of this. Luke Thomas may feel like gloating that Sonnen's Pro Wrasslin' approach to promotion isn't as effective as many believed, but like Thomas many are not factoring in the damage Anderson Silva had already done to himself as a main event PPV draw. Because of this Chael Sonnen was starting well below zero in hyping the fight to begin with.

It was bad enough when people were becoming indifferent to Silva's position as Middleweight Champion due to a perceived lack of competition since the Dan Henderson fight, but at least in the case of a mismatch we could tune in and maybe see Silva put on a display of fighting brilliance. Instead we were greeted with fighting bafoonery by an apparently bored champion in three consecutive title defences.

After the Patrick Cote performance many were already concluding that until the division deepened he would be best suited at Light Heavyweight. The fight against Cote was also the UFC's first time in (Rosemont) Chicago, Illinois and the UFC were so embarrassed by Silva's performance that when it came time for the WEC to roll into the Windy City six months later the promotion and marketing was notably lacking and the event unheralded. It was almost as if Zuffa wanted to get in and out of town unnoticed in case there was a lynch mob waiting for them since the disastrous UFC event. Interestingly Anderson Silva has been the main event of other new or relatively new markets for a UFC live show: his fight against Thales Leites was UFC's second time only in Montreal, his fight with Demian Maia was the UFC's first foray into the Middle East and Abu Dhabi, and even his most recent fight against Chael Sonnen was the UFC's first time in Oakland, California. Could Silva have been feeling the pressure to perform in front of a new audience that the UFC were adamant in trying to 'infect'?

A new market Silva had also fought in was Philadelphia, Pennsylvania where he put on a superlative performance against Forrest Griffin. However Silva didn't have to carry that show; his title wasn't on the line, and BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian was the main event. Perhaps there is a connection.

As bad as the Cote and Leites performances were, they were made up for with wowing displays of destruction against James Irvin and Forrest Griffin. The fight with Cote could be dismissed as an off night - and everyone can have them - and even the fight with Leites could be argued as Leites' lack of will to engage and resorting to the sport jiu jitsu tactic of 'Butt Scooting' when his takedowns failed. Unfortunately from Silva's apologist manager Ed Soares we were also presented with the tired Boxing cliché of a challenger having to take the title from the champion, a cliché that goes a long way in explaining the decline in interest of Boxing when champions decide to dance around and fight not to lose rather than fight to win - something the other UFC champions are doing. Whether they're successful in finishing their opponent or not the effort is there.

Both UFC, media and fans alike were on a high going into UFC 112 based on Silva's performance against Griffin, and even though there was some concern a fight with Maia might be a repeat of a fight with Leites, most argued Maia was the far superior grappler of the two and would be more aggressive in getting the fight to the ground and working his submission magic. Despite possessing the ability to use some crafty throws and trips from the clinch, Maia could never get close enough to Silva to try and like a lot of BJJ players his Wrestling shot was severely lacking in drive and penetration. After a dominant first round, Silva decided to coast the rest of the fight even using the referee as a Charlie Chaplin-style stooge at one point. Another decision win for Silva in a title defence, another irate Dana White, another bad first impression in a new market.

Three bizarre and infuriating title defences meant three strikes and Silva was out of the fans' favour. I remember when Sonnen was first announced as Silva's next opponent (and the sound byte gold that could be possible) there was still a strong sense that casual fans wouldn't buy it, partly because they didn't expect Sonnen to pose much of a challenge, but largely because they had been fooled and burnt three times before. For all the heat Sonnen was creating for this fight by either riling up a mob wanting to see Silva knock his block off, or generating support because of Silva's past behaviour, Silva's own level of negative-heat is a strong indicator in why there is such a great difference between the pre-fight trends and post-fight estimates.

Silva had negative-heat going into this fight, and negative-heat means people no longer care to see Silva succeed or fall. And potentially that was 400,000 buys worth of fans choosing to abstain this Silva fight, especially considering Dana White's promise of making UFC 112 up to the fans and so far not delivering. As entertaining and interested in this fight as the trends indicated fans were, it wasn't enough to convince these understandably jaded fans into parting with $45. Anderson Silva simply didn't deserve their money.

A more interesting and pertinent issue to discuss would be how badly would UFC 117 have done if Chael Sonnen had taken the Shane Carwin route to promoting this fight? It could have ended up as one of the worst PPV buyrates in post-TUF UFC history. Sonnen could have put on the same in-cage performance but with so few possibly watching, the UFC may have had to consider whether it was worth keeping the sport's hypothetical number #1 fighter. For the sake of credibility? Sure. To keep him away from would-be competitors? Deffinitely. Because he's a draw and can make you money? Not a chance. UFC would have to seriously consider which of these is a more pressing concern.

Fortunately for Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen saved his career.