UFC 117 estimates are hovering around 600,000 buys
by David Bixenspan on Aug 17, 2010 5:43 PM EDT
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According to Bryan Alvarez in Figure Four Weekly via The Underground, current estimates put UFC 117's PPV buys in the 600,000 range. This was where most higher-end guesses were in the days before the fight (based on the theoretical maximum business of an Anderson Silva fight), but it's mildly disappointing in light of how other indicators were going on the day of the show. The post at TUG has a good explanation of estimates vs trends:
Trending numbers are based upon pre-fight indicators (e.g., live gate, television ratings, or Google search frequency) that are known to have a significant correlation with PPV buy rate numbers. When a fight is said to be "trending" towards a particular number the analyst is essentially saying that the pre-fight indicators are currently at levels that would suggest the PPV buyrate will be X. Trending numbers do not incorporate any sort of actual number received from a cable company.
Estimate numbers are based upon actual reports from cable companies. These typically take a little longer to report, because the cable companies need time to gather the purchase data from their systems. Then, once reliable base numbers have been gathered, the company will extrapolate those initial figures to give an estimate of what the overall card has likely produced from a buyrate perspective.
Based on the legend of this fight and another strong hype job, I suspect that a rematch could easily hit 1 million buys. I don't think it could hit UFC 100 levels, but it wouldn't shock me if it ended up as the biggest Lesnar-free UFC show in history.
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Chael Sonnen doesn’t look nearly like the mega-draw that so many were quick to label him as after the trending numbers came out. 600,000 is still a really great number for a card like this.
Forget it Donny, you're out of your element.
CagesideSeats.com
What this could mean is media underestimated how burnt fans were from Silva's last fight.
Considering the sentiment after the Abu Dhabi fiasco, and that Silva was headlining a solid card but with no other ‘name’ on it other than Matt Hughes (who until the win over Almeida was written off as a fading star no longer relevant to the sport), 600k would had to have exceeded expectations by a mile.
If Sonnen hadn’t done this much to promote the fight and instead took the Shane Carwin route, it’s not far out of the realm of possibility that this could have been one of the worst buys in modern UFC history and fans united in missing this PPV because they didn’t want Silva anywhere near their $45.
This is a great number despite the early reports that it was near a million
It is very clear that Sonnen did more than his share of promotion to helps get this fight over 300k. Anderson Silva, though popular with MMA fans, is no where near the draw of Lesnar, GSP, and Penn.
"Dawson was NOT a hype job. Dude schooled Adamek, beat Tarver twice (neither competitive), beat Johnson twice (once close, once a wipeout) and even beat Harding when Harding was still good. That is not hype. Those are results. [b]I love how people see a guy lose once and all of a sudden nothing they ever did means anything. You are dead wrong.[/b]"
- Dan Rafael
One Bryan, Dave etc neglect is that when UFC trends on twitter or google a lot of those searches may contain “stream” or “live feed”!
by rovert on Aug 17, 2010 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
wow! im really surprised by this.
I agree the rematch will do better especially if its a strong card, but i thought this ppv would do 750 st least. A lot of fans missed out, i think its the best ppv we’ve had so far this year.
I like the feeling of hunting down what I feed my family. If there’s a beast out there capable of hunting down Brock Lesnar, he would do it and make me the trophy on his den wall. But the laws of nature dictate that I’m going to be the one who goes into the wild and comes home with the evening’s bounty. - The #1 ranked HW in the world...
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