UFC 117: Will it Draw?

Another quality Fanpost worthy of promotion to the front page.

UFC 117 is coming up fast and with that the question... how well will it draw on PPV?

This is an interesting PPV for a lot of reasons. As you can see from the poster above, it has a built in selling point in that the main card consists of all matchups pitting USA vs Brazil. The UFC has gone the gimmick route before with UFC 58: USA vs Canada. That show was headlined by Rich Franklin vs David Louiseau and also featured the first fight between GSP and BJ Penn. It pulled in 300,000 buys. The issue here is that they haven't been promoting it this way. The poster above was made by a fan. Which makes sense because it seems like the fans always do better than the actual Zuffa employees.

There is a good reason not to play this up though, namely the fact that Chael Sonnen has done enough talking to build two shows up but they could be missing out on something big by ignoring the USA vs Brazil angle. Speaking of Sonnen, for all the talking he has been doing...how many casual fans know who he is? Most of my friends are casuals and when I asked them if they knew him, they answered with a blank expression. The big win he turned in over Nate Marquardt happened at UFC 109 which was one of the worst shows, in terms of buys at 275,000, so far this year. His smack talk has made the hardcore fans more interested but it hasn't done much to draw in the casuals. That means Anderson Silva will have to carry the load.

The problem with that is that it's debatable how much of a draw Anderson Silva actually is. His numbers look like this.

• UFC 64 - 300,000
  
• UFC 67 - 400,000
  
• UFC 73 - 425,000
  
• UFC 77 - 325,000
  
• UFC 82 - 325,000
  
• UFC 90 - 300,000
  
• UFC 97 - 650,000
  
• UFC 101 - 850,000
• UFC 112 - 500,000

What can we take from these numbers? Well, for one, Silva, by himself, doesn't sell very well on pay-per-view. UFC 67 had the debut of Quinton Jackson and Mirko Cro Cop on top of Silva's fight with Travis Lutter. UFC 73 had another title fight on it between Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca, not to mention Tito Ortiz against Rashad Evans. The big number that UFC 97 got has to be largely because of the Chuck Liddell-Shogun Rua fight. He also had a ton of help on the UFC 101 card as he was fighting the very popular Forrest Griffin in the co-main with a BJ Penn title fight as the main event. UFC 112 they did the same but in reverse with different opponents.

So if Silva needs help to sell the show let's look at what help he is getting. After taking quite some time to get the bout signed the Jon Fitch-Thiago Alves rematch has been deemed to be the co-main event. Alves hasn't fought since losing to GSP at UFC 100. He hasn't been on TV for an entire year, so whatever rub he got from fighting the champion has since all but diminished. As for Jon Fitch, there is a reason he has only been in one main event despite a 12-1 record since coming to the UFC.

It's a stacked card all together but you can't count on the first fight of the card to sell the show. Not unless you promote the whole event as being a big deal. Obviously, we know it is. Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson, a certifiable main event on it's own, will open the night. The winner will reportedly receive a shot at the winner of the UFC 121 title fight between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez. Clay Guida and Rafael Dos Anjos aren't the biggest names but they put on amazing fights. For as old as he is and as much as his skills may have declined, Matt Hughes is still a star and they need to do more to sell him. His fight with Ricardo Almeida could be sold based on the built in storyline of Almeida wanting revenge for his teacher Renzo, whom Hughes beat at UFC 112.

Another thing going against this card is the fact that the UFC has been on such a great run of shows that have sold unbelievably well. Starting with UFC 111, no show has done under 500,000 buys and 2 shows have gone over the million buys mark. At some point that blistering pace has to drop off. UFC 118 is also this month with the rematch between BJ and Frank Edgar and the fight between James Toney and Randy Couture. Fans might be saving for that card. Two cards in one month usually means people have to choose. UFC 113 and 114 showed that you can pull big numbers in the same month with two different shows but these two aren't as big if only looking at the main event. I get the feeling this is the card that breaks the streak. I'll give a prediction of 450,000 buys.

For what it's worth, I hope I'm wrong.