Off Topic - NFL Picks Week 6

Another week and there are a ton of interesting matchups to look forward to. A few teams looking to separate from the pack (Chicago, Atlanta, Baltimore) and a couple of teams desperate to get back on track (Minnesota, Dallas, Miami). Should be a great week. In we go.

Miami vs Green Bay
There are a million reasons to think the Dolphins will win this game. I just don't trust them enough to get the job done. The list of injured players on the Green Bay roster is almost as long as the list of healthy players. And we're not just talking about anyone; the guys that are hurt are stars. Nick Barnett, JerMichael Finley, Brandon Chillar, Clay Matthews, Mark Tauscher and Ryan Pickett are all listed as Doubtful or Out. Aaron Rodgers sustained a concussion last week but they are still, stupidily I might add, going to play him. That's a lot of hurting talent with no real way to replace them. The Dolphins aren't in panic mode just yet but they are definitely desperate to get back to winning games. They've lost two straight, but not just any two; they lost two straight at home to the Jets and Patriots. New England is 3-1 and the Jets are 4-1. Miami can't afford to fall into a 2-3 hole with those two home losses. Combine that with the fact that I really want them to win and I have to pick them. Miami 20-17

San Diego vs St. Louis
I really can't see any reason why this won't be a blowout. Most of the woes for the Chargers this year have been on special teams. After giving up 2 touchdowns on kickoffs to the Seahawks a couple weeks ago and losing that game because of it, they gave up a blocked punt for a safety and another for a touchdown last week to lose to the division rival Oakland Raiders. They've had their early season slide. It's time to pick it up and go on a hot winning streak. The Rams seem like the perfect team to get that started. Now that Mark Clayton is gone, they just don't have any weapons on the outside. That means defenses can relentlessly blitz rookie QB Sam Bradford. That can only be trouble. San Diego 31-7

Baltimore vs New England
The Patriots had themselves a busy off week. They traded away estranged receiver Randy Moss to the Vikings and brought back formerly estranged receiver Deion Branch. That represents a pretty big drop off but if any team can make a switch like that work well for them, it's New England. Tom Brady might have broke records with Moss in 2007 but he won a Super Bowl with Branch in 2005. But those Patriots had a solid defense that made plenty of plays. This year's defensive squad is giving up 272 yards a game through the air. The Ravens have been inconsistent this year but adding Anquan Boldin has given them a dimension they never had before. Now they can beat you deep if you load up to stop Ray Rice. The Pats being at home doesn't give them much of an edge. Whoever makes the most plays the most often wins. Tough game to call but I trust the Ravens defense more than the Patriots. Baltimore 23-21

Cleveland vs Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger will finally play his first game with the Steelers this week. It's a damn good week to come back for too. All year, I've touted the fact that the Browns have led in the fourth quarter of each game they've played. No way in hell does that happen in this one. Not because of the return of Roethlisberger. I actually think he might have a few problems. No, it's because the Steelers have the best defense in the league and the Browns have run out of quarterbacks. Both Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace have high ankle sprains. That means Colt McCoy will be getting his first career start. Dick LeBeau is undoubtedly licking his chops at this. This might be the only time I ever actually predict a shutout. Pittsburgh 24-0

Kansas City vs Houston
This is an awesome game. The Texans want so badly to be a good team, it just never seems like they can fully turn the corner. They can hang 40 points and 500 yards on you on any given week. Then the next week they lose their composure and look like a college team. The defense is one of the league's worst. They give up 409 yards a game, which is good for 31st in the league. However, most of that comes through the air and Matt Cassel is still the Chiefs quarterback. We weren't sure if Kansas City was for real until they played the Colts as tough as they did last week. Aside from a couple of horrific drops from DeWayne Bowe, the weak link in the chain is clearly Cassel. Maybe the Chiefs run the ball well and keep the dynamic Houston offense off the field but I'm counting more on the Texans to make the plays and keep their first place spot atop the AFC South. Houston 27-17

Detroit vs NY Giants
It's an odd thing. Going into the Sunday Night game against the Bears, the Giants looked like a team in disarray. After the utter and complete destruction of Chicago, people still didn't want to buy them. Then they went into Houston and just put it on the Texans and now there is no choice. This team is better than everyone thought. It's still early in the season but listen to this stat. The Giants, in terms of yardage, have the number 5 offense and number 1 defense in the entire league. On defense they are 1st against the pass and 9th against the rush. Offensively, they are 9th passing and 11th rushing. That's balance. How do the Lions hope to compete with that? They don't and they can't. NY Giants 34-13

Atlanta vs Philadelphia
Well, as it stands right now, it doesn't look like Mike Vick will be playing in this game. Kevin Kolb is slated to start and while Vick may suit up, he probably won't see any actual playing time. Based on how he's been playing this year, that's a bad thing. But when you look deeper it might be a blessing in disguise. Vick wouldn't have had a clear head and he might have overdone it. Kolb can execute an easy gameplan of checking it down and setting up screens to neutralize the potent Falcons pass rush. At least, that should be the plan. Jon Abraham will have a matchup against a back up in King Dunlap. Yes, that's his actual name. Kolb might be running for his life and I have my doubts as to how well the Eagles defense will hold up. They gave up quite a few big plays to the 49ers last week. Then again, the Falcons have struggled on the road. This is a big game for them, for tiebreaker purposes and to establish that they really are the best team in the conference. I think they'll pull it out. Atlanta 23-17

Seattle vs Chicago
The last time I said I wasn't worried about a team we were playing, the Giants debacle happened. Never again will I think that leading into a game. The Seahawks have been outstanding at home but terrible on the road and, at least statistically, they've given up more yards passing than all but one team in the league. The fact that they are 2nd in rushing yards given up is more about the fact that the secondary is prone to be exploited by good quarterbacks. Lo and behold, Jay Cutler should be back this week and that means the Bears have a favorable matchup. Chris Williams should also return to give the line a boost. He'll be moved to left guard, as opposed to his normal slot of left tackle, and he says he's very comfortable with the transition. If the line can hold up even half as well as they did last week, Cutler can have a ton of success. Both teams boast some of the best special teams play in the NFL. Leon Washington leads the league in kickoff return average and Daniel Manning is 3rd. Should be an interesting matchup, at least in the forgotten art. I'm a big time homer and I always pick the Bears but I really think that the matchups favor them and Julius Peppers and company should be able to force some mistakes from Matt Hasselbeck. Chicago 20-13

New Orleans vs Tampa Bay
Boy, what the hell is wrong with the Saints? They somehow managed to lose a game last week, to the lowly Arizona Cardinals no less, after not giving up a rushing or passing touchdown. That means they blew it on special teams and they turned the ball over way too much. Drew Brees hasn't looked right for a few weeks and although he's saying all the right things, there has to be plenty of concern in the Big Easy. Reggie Bush is still out and joining him on the sidelines is Pierre Thomas. The lack of a rushing threat has made it easier for teams to play the pass. Brees may be one of the best in the league but he can only do so much when defenses know what their offense is going to do. This matchup might have looked great for the Saints at the beginning of the year but the Bucs are playing very well right now. Mike Williams, who's played out of his mind so far in this his rookie season, is a game time decision. That's a big injury if it turns out he can't play. Josh Freeman has a favorite target and it's him. The offense will be an entirely different team if he's not on  the field. I'm going to bank on the idea that he plays and pick the upset here. Tampa Bay 24-20

NY Jets vs Denver
Huge win for the Jets last week. Other than Baltimore, they look like the class of the AFC. The defense isn't as scary as last year but they still make big time plays in big time spots and put pressure on the quarterback. With the Broncos total lack of a running game, Kyle Orton could be in for a long day. He's thrown for over 300 yards in 4 consecutive games. It would be incredible if he could stretch it to five against this defense. Darrelle Revis is questionable with the hamstring issue that he re-aggravated last week. His playing, in my mind, wouldn't make much of a difference. The Jets gameplan will be predicated on putting pressure on the fairly immobile Orton. It's got the feel of a potential let down game after how big of a win they picked up last week but I couldn't live with myself if I picked against them. They can run the ball and Sanchez has looked fantastic this year. They get the win. NY Jets 19-17

Oakland vs San Francisco
Finally, a game the 49ers can win. Well, that is if Alex Smith can manage to make it a whole four quarters without making a mind numbing stupid mistake like he usually does. The fans last week at one point in Frisco were actually chanting for the coaches to bring in David Carr. That's how bad Smith can be. But he can also show flashes of brilliance. The Raiders defense is tough but they can be had down the field and we could finally see a true breakout game for highly touted prospect, Michael Crabtree. The Raiders certainly aren't a pushover anymore but I can't see them having enough offense to keep up with the Niners. Zach Miller has played huge this year and if they could run ball control it would greatly increase their chances but I don't see it happening. Finally, score one for the red and gold. San Fransisco 26-14

Dallas vs Minnesota
This could be the only time in the history of football that a game contested between two teams with identical 1-3 records could be considered the game of the week. Even with the struggles of both squads, we're all looking forward to this one. Dallas this year has been the case study in why stats don't tell the whole story. If you look at the numbers, the Cowboys should be blowing every team out and scoring at will. This obviously has not been the case. They've struggled mightily with penalties and turnovers and lost a few very close games. The Vikings on the other hand have just looked sloppy for much of the season. They started horribly slow last week against the Jets before picking it up and then fading down the stretch. Brett Favre has been the center of attention once again this season, only this time it's for all the wrong reasons. He's still embroiled in a sex scandal and his on field play has been sub-par at best. Now it comes out that he's suffering from tendinitis in his elbow and he says he would be willing to sit one or two games if it gets bad enough. Which is complete crap, we all know he's going to play. He's got a new toy in Randy Moss that he doesn't want to miss out on. Moss has killed the Cowboys every time he's played them. His teams are 7-0 against Dallas and his stats in those 7 games are unbelievable. He'll need to have a big game for his team to have a chance at winning. This is a huge game for both teams. The loser is likely done this season. It's not impossible to come back from a 1-4 record to make the playoffs but if you have that kind of record it usually means you just aren't that good. I'd like to think the Cowboys can win this game but I just don't think it's going to happen. Sure, they may be motivated by the blowout last year in the playoffs in which the Vikings clearly ran up the score, but I don't think they've got enough defensively to contain Moss. Sprinkle in some Adrian Peterson and if Brett Favre can stay upright and avoid turning the ball over, the Vikings should win the game. The Cowboys offensive line is suspect and this could be the week that Jared Allen finally has himself a long overdue breakout game. I hope Dallas goes into the Metrodome and smokes them but I just don't see it happening. Minnesota 30-28

Indianapolis vs Washington
Like Bill Simmons likes to say, betting against Peyton Manning in a primetime game is ludicrous. He's not going to play nearly as bad as he did last week. The Redskins can be thrown on and, despite the many injuries listed on the Colts injury report, some of them as questionable as the players listed as questionable, Manning should get back to his 300+ 3 TD type of game that he's used to. The question is whether or not the Skins can keep up. I'm not so sure. McNabb has put up some impressive numbers this year but he's looked really pedestrian in doing it. The way to beat the Colts is to run the ball and Washington has struggled a great deal in doing so this season. Ryan Torain is the only option they have in the backfield and he's not going to scare anybody. It would be huge if they did but they won't. Indianapolis 37-27

Tennessee vs Jacksonville
A solid Monday Night game, albeit one that won't draw great ratings. Good news for us wrestling fans. Should be a lot of running in this game. Chris Johnson vs Maurice Jones-Drew is the way ESPN has decided to market the game and that's the right call. It really is all about those two. Where they go, the team goes, and if they struggle, you can really see how it affects both offenses. They can put up points and both Vince Young and David Garrard are serviceable talents at QB but I'm guessing that whichever running back as the most yards at the end of this game will represent the winning team. As it currently stands, the Jaguars are 4th in the league in rushing with the Titans coming in 6th, although Chris Johnson has more yards rushing individually than does MJD. The Jaguars have given up more points than all of two teams so far this season and I don't think that defense can hold up long enough to give their offense a chance. This will be a huge win in the division in what's shaping up to be one of the best divisions in football. Tennessee 26-21